> Example: if there were 1000 spacefaring civilizations in the Milky Way, what are the odds that all 1000 of them (assuming they were within out light cone) would remain quiet or hidden? Couple that with mass and energy ultimately being limited then there is a strong incentive and advantage in becoming as large as possible. So even if 99% of civilizations remain quiet, the 1% will still make themselves visible.
I am not sold on this math necessarily. When you ask "what are the odds?" what is that based on? How do we derive these odds at all? We know nothing about how these civilizations would evolve or what their values would be. So how can we assume that out of 1000 that 1% would be visible based on the odds? This sort of assumes that the Drake Equation is accurate, when the last few parts of that equation are complete guesses.
> Additionally, on the notion of hidden civilizations in particular, it's essentially impossible to remain hidden to a K2 or K3 civilization so there's really no point.
And maybe this is the difference. Maybe all 1000 are visible to K2 or K3's because it doesn't matter. But equally all 1000 aren't visible to K1's. We are so far away from K2 that I see no reason to speculate on the likelihood of this since we have literally no basis for this other than some fun thought experiments. And all of this is based on how we view ourselves and apply those same traits to beings we have never met and possibly can't even imagine.
This is simply so far out of our grasp to intelligently speculate on, I tend to just avoid doing it.
As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An
expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is
literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science
I am not sold on this math necessarily. When you ask "what are the odds?" what is that based on? How do we derive these odds at all? We know nothing about how these civilizations would evolve or what their values would be. So how can we assume that out of 1000 that 1% would be visible based on the odds? This sort of assumes that the Drake Equation is accurate, when the last few parts of that equation are complete guesses.
> Additionally, on the notion of hidden civilizations in particular, it's essentially impossible to remain hidden to a K2 or K3 civilization so there's really no point.
And maybe this is the difference. Maybe all 1000 are visible to K2 or K3's because it doesn't matter. But equally all 1000 aren't visible to K1's. We are so far away from K2 that I see no reason to speculate on the likelihood of this since we have literally no basis for this other than some fun thought experiments. And all of this is based on how we view ourselves and apply those same traits to beings we have never met and possibly can't even imagine.
This is simply so far out of our grasp to intelligently speculate on, I tend to just avoid doing it.