> China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it.

I don't believe this is true. IIRC they've implied they would invade if Taiwan declared itself independent.

China has more than just implied it. They directly stated that a declaration of independence by Taiwan means war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052

> Personally, I think they'd go for it.

If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet.

> If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet.

There's a decent chance at this point that all those troops would do is hold the airport for a rushed evacuation mission.

You can’t compare Afghanistan and Taiwan. The US never really cared about Afghanistan once they got rid of Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden. They only stayed as long they did because the optics of leaving were always going to be bad.

The US does care about Taiwan, because of real economic interests.

US is prioritizing South China Sea and Taiwan Strait after its exit from Afghanistan.

US sails ship through South China Sea days after China institutes new maritime ID rules [1]

[1]: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-m...

Taiwan has TSMC so the US needs to protect Taiwan for its strategic needs.

> Taiwan has TSMC so the US needs to protect Taiwan for its strategic needs.

Eh. I think there are plenty of American decision-makers who are motivated to figure out a rationale for swallowing a loss like that.

Absolutely not. US troops in Taiwan create a long term issue. It's objectively better for China to strike Taiwan before there are sizeable troops there than wait for those trooos to accumulate forever.

China would strike as soon as US troops officially settle in China in a military and not police/security/training/sales capacity.