In a nutshell: a huge advance and now what appears to be a crash (~ -50%) is currently in progress.
The bigger picture is how indicative this compressed boom-bust story is of the future of the surge in US inflation. Lumber is showing us how easy it is for the market to reject ridiculous prices. What's unclear is how low lumber, and other goods/commoditiies that have seen similar booms, can go.
I know someone who picks up loads from sawmills and it turns out there was no lumber shortage. They were just holding back on shipments to drive up prices taking advantage of the inflation trend.
You've been breaking the site guidelines badly enough and repeatedly enough that I've banned this account.
I appreciate that you did better with this one than with the previous account we banned, but even so the pattern with this one is not acceptable and commenters to HN need to do better than this. If you don't want to be banned, you're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com and give us a reason to believe that you'll follow the rules in the future.
This chart of lumber futures gives an idea of the recent past (zoom out 1-5 years for perspective):
<https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ALBS1!>
In a nutshell: a huge advance and now what appears to be a crash (~ -50%) is currently in progress.
The bigger picture is how indicative this compressed boom-bust story is of the future of the surge in US inflation. Lumber is showing us how easy it is for the market to reject ridiculous prices. What's unclear is how low lumber, and other goods/commoditiies that have seen similar booms, can go.
Edit: this links seems to work better
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-LBS1%21/