Except that we still don't actually know very much about the origins of this virus.

We know enough to calculate a joint probability. Just update your estimate with new information. This should be pretty non-controversial. Everybody does this every day especially in the face of uncertainty.

Perhaps you should do the work yourself, rather than requiring others to do it for you?

Are you expecting a number? The joint probability of low-probability events is itself very low.

I'm not saying you should calculate it like P(10 000 tails coin flip) * P(1 000 000 tails coin flip). That can be done numerically. I'm saying that based on everything I've read, the highest probability hypothesis according to my own evaluation is the unintentional lab leak. To me, that's as uncontroversial as it gets. Human error happens _all the time_. Arguing against the lab leak, knowing what we know about China's refusal to allow an actual thorough scientific investigation into it, seems quite a bit more controversial to me.

Labs burn down, medical errors happen, bridges collapse, whatever. That's just reality.