"The ASPI report said birth rates in counties with a 90 percent or greater indigenous population declined by an average of 56.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, far more than other regions in Xinjiang and China during the same period."
56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left hand while allowing more births for Han Chinese with your right hand must be seen for what it is: genocide.
the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities
In addition, ASPI is notorious for being sponsored by the US, UK and Australian weapons industry who have a vested interest in drumming up this kind of thing. I would take anything they have to say with a massive grain of salt [2].
update, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11
Thank you so much. The full report is much more genuine than the abstract from the press. For example, it writes 'in Kashgar prefecture in 2014, the
birth-rate soared to nearly 68 children per thousand people' at the same time the national average was around 12, perhaps because people in those regions are allowed more kids and the policy are rarely enforced compare to other region.
so if the birth rate in that region simply fall to national average, it will went down 80%. I think it's an perfect example of how numbers lie, but most people don't have any vested interest to find out.
I’m glad you had time to digest that report thoroughly in the 11 minutes between my comment and yours. Of course, everyone here should be aware that you are cherry picking. The conclusion of the report is that on average, there was a steep drop in birth rate in minority counties.
The report is named: "Family De-planning: The Coercive Campaign to Drive Down Indigenous Birth-rates in Xinjiang". This is not a case of media misrepresentation no matter how badly you want it to be.
The conclusion is typically found at the end of a report. Why don’t you go back and try again.
I don't mind to examine the full dataset if they are available. And the report is kind of only 20ish pages, excluding the references and covers.
After rereading as you suggested, it also said 'Urumqi is also a Han-majority city .... In 2018, the city’s birth-rate grew by
about 25 percent compared to the pre-2017 baseline, from 8.5 births per thousand people to 12 per
thousand.' So at the same time Han in Urumqi were having 8.5 per 1000 birth, Minorities in Kashgar were having 68 per 1000 birthrate. If that's anything, I'd say the CCP is genociding Han Chinese for selectively enforcing the policy.
I think the act to list only percentages without listing exact number is dubious, and I am confident the pattern would be similar.
Now you're comparing apples to oranges, in addition to cherry picking.
You're comparing birth rates of a major city full of unmarried Han who have been lured to the area by government incentives and other work arrangements, to a predominantly rural area. Those birth rates will always be divergent; anywhere in China, and most of the rest of the world. The part about Han being purposely incentivized to move to Xinjiang is explained in section 5 of the report.
The report does not dispute that Uyghur birth rates were higher relative to Han Chinese in the past. It makes a convincing case that Uyghurs are being targeted now, at the same time birth control policies are being loosened in Han Chinese parts of the country. That policy discrepancy is intentional, and we should expect it to continue unless we speak out against it.
Finally, we can agree that the Chinese government is also evil for controlling the births of Han Chinese and ruining life for generations of their own people who had to contend with the CCP's signature and unique natal authoritarianism.
You have a love for fruit, don't you? But that's not apples and oranges, nor are they cherries. That's the most specific data you can find in that report on the actual birth rate. You're more than welcome to share more data and maybe we can examine.
It's really wonderful for you to link the dataset here. I think neither of us would have the time to compile the dataset manually. Admittedly and regrettably I didn't check the appendix.
So the conclusion was from Xinjiang's 2017 and 2018 birthrate, which respectively as included was 15.88 and 10.69, so that's where the 50% drop came from. However, the same index for China overall was 12.43 and 10.94, where we see around 20% drop. I don't think it can be categorically concluded it's some racially-motivated policy. (whether it's a good policy or bad is a whole different matter.)
You: The report draws the wrong conclusions. Besides, they don’t even share the dataset.
Me: Nope. Here’s the dataset linked in the report.
You: The data show that Xinjiang birth rates declined 30% more than they did in the rest of China. As you can see I was right all along.
I’m curious how you managed to make this journey. It doesn’t seem like you’ve been participating in this discussion in good faith, frankly. I could be wrong though. In that case, I would recommend you actually read what people are trying to show you before attempting to criticize it. You are clearly working backwards from your priors.
Well, I guess you know how to spin a story. My point the whole time has been that percentages can be misleading without the actual number presented, still you seemed to be only cares about the percentages.
It's quite easy to see that birth rate in Xinjiang falls around the national average in 2018. Stil, I'm glad you found the actual dataset in the appendix.
Indeed, this seems to have touched a nerve. Interesting that no one has tried to refute my point directly.
There are others in the thread who seem to be suggesting that because Han Chinese have also been subject to population control measures, that my point is somehow invalid.
No one has yet explained why we see such steep birth rate declines, specifically in Uyghur regions, relative to the rest of China, only in the last half decade or so.
You know, right around the time they started rounding up millions of people in that same ethnic group and putting them in camps. The Chinese government has many euphemisms and rationalizations for these camps, but they don't dispute their existence. In any case we have satellite imagery.
What can one conclude about these coinciding actions by the Chinese state if not genocide? If it's not that, what is it?
In case any potential down voters are not educated on the matter, the U.N. convention on genocide specifically prohibits targeting ethnic or religious minorities for forced sterilization/birth control:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-poli...
56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left hand while allowing more births for Han Chinese with your right hand must be seen for what it is: genocide.