IME most people will generally appear to be making things up as they go – even if they have significant relevant experience. Every situation is unique, and experience tends to look more like having a list of techniques with varying degrees of expertise, rather than having a playbook for every situation. You have to look for the expertise rather than raw confidence.
In sports terms it would be something like a baseball pitcher being able to throw a great curveball, a great fastball, and an all right slider, and knowing roughly what situations to use them in. There will still be a high degree of randomness and mistakes will be made.
Agreed. What experience and talent gives you are instincts that improve the chances of whatever it is "you're making up as you go" working well.
I would much rather work with people who have a good track record of making it up as they go as opposed to people coming in with a fixed idea of how something should happen and are more likely to misapply whatever lessons led to those views (probably someone elses anyway).
In sports terms it would be something like a baseball pitcher being able to throw a great curveball, a great fastball, and an all right slider, and knowing roughly what situations to use them in. There will still be a high degree of randomness and mistakes will be made.