I don't get that analogy, poker players aren't trained to use cards, or to do movements with their hands. Hell, a friend of mine is semi-pro poker player and sucks at shuffling.
And you'll say: you're just nitpicking the idea is that pros aren't pros at everything.
I'm not, I'll even fix that analogy for you: a croupier gets impressed by card trick.
Now the problem is, pilots are trained observers, and they get to see a lot of things from their jets. Cars, trucks, houses, rivers, trees, ships, helicopters, drones, different types of planes - not only because they do recon, they also have to target some of those things, and they train a lot for it. Distances, sizes, cost of maneuvers, etc.
With that said: what other type of people are best trained to take a guess at what things are from up above? Drone operators? Balloon operators? Weather balloon folks? Aerospace engineers?
Can they be fooled still? Probably - but if you can fool 4 pilots at the same time, their tens of million of dollars jets with sensors, and the most advanced radar systems, all at the same time, then you're not a magician - you simply have tech way superior to what those guys have.
That's the thing, it doesn't even need to be an actual craft. If it's something that can create optical illusions on jet pilots and jam radars, how are they supposed to do anything if their senses and systems fail?
I think that if I wanted to solve this at all costs, one of tve things I'd do (in addition to working with radar engineers and scientists of course) is to hire a number of magicians to get them to try to recreate the experience of the pilots.
Because those pilots are good and highly skilled, but so are Penn and Teller and they still get fooled from time to time so it is not impossible.
I.e. I disagree with everyone: those that underestimate pilots and say we don't have good photos and also those who think pilots are infallible.
I don't think you're quite understanding the endeavor at hand (which is my point): let's say they could replicate it, and now they have to deploy it in a live scenario.
So now they have to go off to the coast of the USA in a restricted area used for navy drills and testing, probably coming from the Pacific side. Let's say Penn and Teller get access to a brand new submarine from China that's has stealthy as they can be, enough to set up the experiment.
Then they had to stay there for days teasing both the ships radars and navy pilots by make things pop up on their radars and make them move large distances in short periods of time (seconds), and get them to chase radar blips.
Now comes the day that a squadron of jets are asked to check something nearby their location (which mean they have to tap into Navy communications systems), launch the illusion, make it react to the pilots unexpected behavior (one dove the other remained above), and then make it desapear (and then proceed to jam radars, to eventually exit out).
(This is roughly the story of the Fravor incident.)
I think just the first point, of entering USA waters, more specifically restricted waters and air space actively controlled by the Navy - which was doing drills - already shows technology superiority.
Which was my point.
They have to know what the radars and sensors are and how they work (hackers, compromised top level people), how to jam them (superior tech), how to be stealthy (superior tech), how to create illusions for jet pilots while fooling jet sensors (superior tech).
I'm not saying these are aliens, but surely looks like tech superiority or the whole defense system collapsing all together even the pilots.
If this was done by a couple of guys, with too much free time on a shoe string budget, that can fool the most advanced navy, well that's not good either.
And you'll say: you're just nitpicking the idea is that pros aren't pros at everything.
I'm not, I'll even fix that analogy for you: a croupier gets impressed by card trick.
Now the problem is, pilots are trained observers, and they get to see a lot of things from their jets. Cars, trucks, houses, rivers, trees, ships, helicopters, drones, different types of planes - not only because they do recon, they also have to target some of those things, and they train a lot for it. Distances, sizes, cost of maneuvers, etc.
With that said: what other type of people are best trained to take a guess at what things are from up above? Drone operators? Balloon operators? Weather balloon folks? Aerospace engineers?
Can they be fooled still? Probably - but if you can fool 4 pilots at the same time, their tens of million of dollars jets with sensors, and the most advanced radar systems, all at the same time, then you're not a magician - you simply have tech way superior to what those guys have.
That's the thing, it doesn't even need to be an actual craft. If it's something that can create optical illusions on jet pilots and jam radars, how are they supposed to do anything if their senses and systems fail?