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It’s Rare to Have Competing, Viable, Scientific Theories (nav.al)
2 points by todsacerdoti on May 11, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments


This post badly misinforms about Monty Hall, though. It literally falls for the Monty Hall fallacy. The post should read, "now your odds are 99 out of 100" instead of "now your odds are one out of two".

"An easier way to understand this is to imagine there were 100 doors and you pick one at random. Then he opens 98 of the remaining 99 and shows you there’s nothing behind them.

Now do you switch?

Of course you do. You had one in 100 odds of picking the right door the first time, and now your odds are only one in two..."


Whether they're actually wrong depends on how you interpret what they wrote. Maybe they aren't talking about the winning probability (which indeed is 99%) but, literally what they wrote, the odd of one of two remaining doors being the right one. This will explain why they took this modified problem rather explaining the common one in full. If that is then it's still not good because they passed the interesting part.




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