Are you into apocalypses? There's the British quick-spreading strain, and there are the Brazilian and South African variants that the vaccine does not offer good protection against. I predict that COVID will be like Picardy Fever, not like the Spanish Flu - there will be outbreaks every few years here and there.
The apocalypse scenario is unlikely with the population having some resistance to the virus after vaccination even if new variants possibly render the vaccine less effective. We obviously do not have enough data yet to understand the vaccine's efficacy against these new strains but a lot of scientists are saying it will be "good enough" while we work on vaccines to handle the variants.
If this thing can basically be treated no differently than the common cold once vaccinated by most people and in the outliers something a little worse there will be no popular support to continue draconian lock down measures.
The goal is to stop the bleeding. The patient is on the floor right now and haemorrhaging liters blood. We want to stabilize the patient and let them get on with their life as quickly as possible. We cannot let perfect be the enemy of "Good Enough" here.
Agreed. Hospital overflows is the main issue - and we know that things are far worse in winter than in summer. Come May things will be heading back to normal, and hospital collapse won’t be the concern it was this year come next October due to widespread vaccination.
At least in the west, global logistics of vaccination seem to have collapsed. We need to, as a species, get on top of vaccine rollout for next time. It’s delayed at the moment because we didn’t make enough vials over summer FFS.
Global eradication of diseases is very hard, because there are lots of areas that don’t have much money or government capacity to dedicate to disease control. Developed countries have brought quite a few diseases to near-extinction within their borders; tuberculosis is the obvious comparison, given the similarity in symptoms, transmissibility, and vaccine efficacy.
You'd be surprised with respect to tuberculosis. We use a vaccine developed 100 years ago, a vaccine which actually doesn't really work in adults (and immunity from the vaccine gets lost by adulthood), and antibiotic resistant strains are only becoming more prevalent.
Are you into apocalypses? There's the British quick-spreading strain, and there are the Brazilian and South African variants that the vaccine does not offer good protection against. I predict that COVID will be like Picardy Fever, not like the Spanish Flu - there will be outbreaks every few years here and there.