I'm not convinced either way, but posting because this is an articulate well written non-sensational discussion of the idea.
If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare is dumb anyway. It's like trying to use a grenade as a handgun. Yes it does damage the enemy, but...
> Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this story is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.
which seems to be unscientific editorializing. There is some evidence, as presented in the OP for example, and there is "no evidence" for any other origin theory either.
And the Chinese government in Wuhan showed from the start with Li Wenliang's experience, that any evidence that pointed to imperfect competence in Wuhan would be destroyed by the totalitarian government.
At this point we just assume every computer is compromised, and we carve out enclaves of varying security for whatever risk level we're willing to assume.
I can imagine a future where pandemics happen at the same frequency as school shootings do today. How far away is that?
With the COVID vaccine, we’re now very close to being able to infect someone with vCJD through a pinprick, with technology that within a couple of years someone will be able to make at home.
The difficulty with what you’ve asked is we don’t have the API in the same way as with computers. I suspect that for many many iterations of computing power and biological understanding we are going to be a long way from being able to determine how to make something dangerous from scratch (although it should be easier to make something dangerous become more dangerous)
That always did strike me as reckless. It reminds me of 1950s and 1960s atomic testing: yes, there is value in the knowledge gained, but the method of gaining it was a bit YOLO.
The previous behavior was to acknowledge the leaks and try to contain them. The current behavior is to arrest people who document the government cover up. Why the change in behavior, unless the government absolutely knows what happened and is trying to control the information?
Your China article is from 2004. China's regime's ability to control media and its residents is stronger now than then, and the people in charge are more insecure and defensive. That may be enough to explain the change in PR strategy.
Alternatively, past leaks simply weren't bad enough to embarrass the State and could be blamed on local officials. This one got so big so fast that a more defensive posture was required.
In 2019, I would have guessed wrong about how a hypothetical COVID-19 would play out.
I'd have pointed out that the US would unequivocally be one of the best nations at recovering from such a challenge:
- Spent the prior 4 years warning the world that something like this could happen
- Well prepared for this eventuality (stockpiles), have recently conducted dry run rehearsals for this exact eventuality, until recently had a funded unit of government for exactly this scenario
- Has world leading healthcare
- Has world leading pharma industry
- Has money, scientists, doctors & other resources out the wazoo
- Is a competent nation with a history of excellent execution in almost all theatres
Conversely i'd have argued totalitarian regimes would have performed the worst because of the politics of a regime like that - everything gets covered up. You'd have insufficient visibility to even begin to mount an effective response.
Everything you said is true but add a populist crackpot President, a huge alt-medicine quackery industry, and a significant fraction of the population that believes absolutely asinine things about vaccines and medicine. The USA would have had a great response to COVID if it weren't for American anti-intellectualism.
Not all totalitarian regimes have been handling COVID well. Russia hasn't done any better than most European countries and may have done worse if they're cooking their numbers (which is likely). Iran has done poorly. The thing that I think made China do well is a combination of an obedient authoritarian society and a large number of scientists and engineers in positions of authority. An authoritarian society is very good at problems of the form "have everyone do X," but that only works if X is the right thing.
> Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly)
This narrative has to stop: the CCP just illegally annexed Hong Kong 27 years ahead of the hand over and violated it's autonomy in direct violation of the internationally recognized treaty, which may arguably require China to return HK to British control--but the UK is entirely destroyed due to COIVD and yet another lockdown and post Brexit economic downturn so they've been neutralized. The CCP set a very dangerous precedent, especially with regards to Taiwan in that region, along the lines of what Russia did when in annexed Crimea, which resulted in several years of armed conflict and even more untold human rights violations.
The CCP committed Crimes against Humanity to do so and passed the National Security Law which has removed rule of Law in what was once a beacon of Western values in an geographic and ethnically Eastern province, which had served as an experimental working model that proved the two systems and cultures could operate alongside one another which also served as the gateway for Western Investment into the Chinese Economy.
I've gone in depth in earlier posts, so look at it for a more elaborated view. But, this tired narrative breaks down under the most basic amount of scrutiny and needs to stop bein repeated: China as a collective may not have gained a lot, but the CCP has without a doubt consolidated a great deal of power and proven itself to be (for the time being until de-coupling takes place in earnest) an indispensable component due to its concentration to serve as the manufacturing hub of the World. And this is detrimental for many reasons I've outlined before.
As for no evidence, I honestly do not know what to make of Dr. Yan's work, especially because of who backed her, but her story is not only very compelling as a whole but it is also inline with the typical MO the CCP follows when they want to dissapear someone. And her involvement at the WHO as well as work in HK is what speaks volume, she elaborated quite a lot about the gain of function work that was being done in several labs where she and her other colleagues worked at, including Hong Kong, by the CCP with Corona based viruses--specifically those found in bats.
I'm completely out of my depth and only took basic virology courses in my undergrad so I cannot speak to the validity of her research papers, but what I can say, especially after SARS and H1N1 in my recent memory is that in retrospect is the CCP has always been an opportunistic bad actor during these pandemics, and its behaviour with the forced border opening, quarantine exemptions, mandatory contact tracing of locals with continued crossings from the mainland into Hong Kong exemplified to what lengths it will go to see that it's will be done, consequences be damned.
It wanted the protests to stop, the threat of secession from the CCP was real espcially with Billionaires like Jimmy Lai openly getting involved in the yellow movement (which is why he had to be made an example of) so the NSL had to be passed at all costs, and now we're seeing what that looks like as more and more Hongkongers fear for their lives as they are being imprisoned retroactively for something that was completely legal--protesting, even non-violent ones as in the case of Agnes Chow. As well as the removal of politicians and placing enforcement of financial censorship as it sees fit.
If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare is dumb anyway. It's like trying to use a grenade as a handgun. Yes it does damage the enemy, but...