How do we get rid of Prop 13? Supporting repeal is a political death sentence for anyone in local or state office. Homeowners of course love it (even when it has negative effects on them), and renters tend to be less politically active. What kind of campaign would it take to do this?
It's a constitutional amendment, so it would take another amendment to overturn it. It has created its own positive feedback cycle for support, because its beneficiaries are long-term residents, which means older older and wealthier people, who vote more. If a) your rent isn't going up, because you own and your taxes are fixed, and b) your kids are old enough to be out of school, and c) you live closer to work because you bought when the areas were less developed, then you're insulated from the 3 main problems that Prop 13 creates.
Those who would benefit from its repeal - renters, people who moved out, people who choose not to move to CA in the first place because of cost and governance, children, etc, either don't vote as consistently or can't vote in CA at all.
In case you were unaware, there were two proposed constitutional amendments that would reduce Proposition 13 benefits this past November:
Proposition 15 (which would have eliminated commercial property tax breaks) failed 48%-52%. I think its biggest political flaw is probably the fact that it would apply July 1, 2022, with no phase-in for small businesses whose lease passes through the property tax. So hopefully in November 2022 another attempt can be made that addresses the political shortcomings.
Proposition 19 (which eliminated tax breaks for inherited investment property in exchange for increased tax portability for the elderly) only barely passed 51%-49%, and that was after it received overwhelming support from the legislature, and a $45 million advertising campaign from the California Association of Realtors that some people criticized for only highlighting the goodies for old people and not the costs for inheritors.
No one is attempting a full repeal of Proposition 13 including residential property.
It could also be attacked judicially; see this episode of the Henry George Program for a discussion of Nordlinger v Hahn and whether different legal arguments could be tried (e.g. does Proposition 13 impinge on the American freedom to migrate under the US Constitution?) http://seethecat.org/ep/2017-07-11.html
The way to have a shot would be to have a ballot which simultaneously gets rid of Prop 13 property tax caps (and increases property taxes) while capping income tax. If you are going to increase property taxes then people are going to want to see corresponding decreases in income tax.
I believe it could be revisited on the grounds that Prop 13 primarily benefits white families (makes sense -- they were the only ones buying property 40 years ago).
There is now good data on the racial disparities in our current tax law and with enough money I think another lawsuit has a chance.
