What makes you think the fed's tap will ever get turned off?
What preconditions do you think we have to see before it happens?
In the past, every time I thought "the Fed will have to tighten soon" something happens which somehow, magically, always requires more easy money to solve.
Example: Easy money caused a housing bubble that burst? Now we need easy money to fix unemployment and keep the markets from seizing up.
It seems that politicians have now decided that the easy-money solution is always the easiest one, with the least traceable future negative ramifications.
It could happen with this Biden presidency, although most likely with whoever comes after him. If you think about easy money and interest rates, with Obama the lowering of interest rates made sense, the country was coming out of a long protracted recession and the money was needed to grease the gears of the economy so to speak.
With the Trump presidency he made his north star be the stock market(and keeping it high) and its why he heavily pressured the Fed to keep interest rates extremely low to supercharge the economy(and make him look good).
If a vaccine comes quickly and is highly effective long term and covid is eradicated by late spring/summer I expect a big jump in the stock market and a red hot housing market, this would be a time to slowly increase the interest rates, wall street won't like it but at some point it will have to happen.
In the past, every time I thought "the Fed will have to tighten soon" something happens which somehow, magically, always requires more easy money to solve.
Example: Easy money caused a housing bubble that burst? Now we need easy money to fix unemployment and keep the markets from seizing up.
It seems that politicians have now decided that the easy-money solution is always the easiest one, with the least traceable future negative ramifications.