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Your saying Nate Silver has “followers” and that their opinion of him “probably” affects the work he is producing?

How does ego affect the model?

Does your theory extend into other celebrities? Is Taleb affected too?



He recently tweeted that the only way Trump can win is through polling error or if Trump steals the election. Do you think that sounds like an unbiased person? His model can't be the reason why he was wrong, it had to be the input data! Imagine saying that to your boss.


His model is based off of point data. Ultimately what his model encodes is the polls+a degree of uncertainty of the polls are completely wrong. If you looked at just the polls, there was no way for trump to win, even assuming a polling error of the same variety as 2016, which appears to be about the situation we are in now.

So no, there's nothing wrong with his tweet. Otherwise, you should be able to explain how trump could win without a polling error. Which states that trump was polling behind by 5-7 points he'd win, and how he's win them without a polling error.




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