Ok, I spent way more time thinking about this than I should have :)
When we measure human attributes they are almost always normal distributions, I see no reason that programming ability is any different. But, maybe tools allow good programmers to magnify their ability more than poor programmers. If that's the case then we'll have a lopsided normal curve, and that sounds plausible. But, I'm highly skeptical of the idea of "productivity" being a simple metric and that 10x means much of anything.
However, I'm quite certain it's not a power law :)
When we measure human attributes they are almost always normal distributions, I see no reason that programming ability is any different. But, maybe tools allow good programmers to magnify their ability more than poor programmers. If that's the case then we'll have a lopsided normal curve, and that sounds plausible. But, I'm highly skeptical of the idea of "productivity" being a simple metric and that 10x means much of anything.
However, I'm quite certain it's not a power law :)