Hmmm, interesting. Its very difficult to make comparisons with wave 1 though, as we presumably had the same number of asymptomatics, but with the much lower levels of testing, we didn't find any of them.
The third wave will probably be a lot easier to model (god, I wish I was joking on that).
I find this talk of first/second wave misleading. This is not the flu for mortality, and it is not an influenza virus. It spreads differently.
Some people at my institution in fact have argued that you should not use flu-derived models, but instead model the spread and the outbreaks in similar ways to SARS and MERS, which rather than big "waves", had a series of spaced outbreaks. At an internal seminar they showed that at least their models for the Bergamo area seemed to be consistent with the actual data.
The third wave will probably be a lot easier to model (god, I wish I was joking on that).