Don't agree at all - your own data disproves your argument.
"It was already very clear in February that this disease rarely killed anyone under 60,"
CFR 0.5% for 40-49
You do realize that 40 is not that old? And that 0.5% CFR is really quite high?
Are you maybe one of those '22 and feeling indestructible' people? How could someone possibly talk about 0.4 CFR and greater CFR for an age-diverse population and not realize how extremely dangerous that is?
And it's 'quite serious' for probably 8-14% of those - and that they may get life-long consequences?
And the CFR jumps quite high when there is a lack of medical facilities?
And the R0/transmissibility is really quite high, not like some 'rare disorder' - it's something that without suppression almost all of us will contract. The 'young and partied' are now becoming walking Death Adders, it's a 'systematic issue' and not very helpful to point out that 'some are less likely to die' just as they are the 'root cause of spread'.
Even if was just to 'protect the elderly' a the shut down was easily warranted.
There are 200 000 deaths from COVID more than US Combat Deaths in Iraq, Vietnam, Korean wars combined - in just a few months.
This is the most devastating and deadly thing to happen to America in at least a century, the lock-down was reasonable, there were probably even other measures we should have been taking.
Social distancing on an interpersonal social level is 'economically inexpensive' for god sakes, we're more resilient than to have to be able to 'party' every week or few.
We have to be smart about this but all things considered we have no choice.
What we 'could have done differently' was probably a) react sooner b) move more aggressively in elderly care c) wore masks and d) had a plan for this ready beforehand instead of making it up as we go along.
Edit: Please do the calculation given: 1) your stated CFR rates 2) the 'herd immunity threshold' of 60-80% of population infected 3) an aggressive R0 meaning that this would happen quite quickly 4) adjustment to CFR given overflowing hospitals and lack of available staff - and the numbers are excessively bad, at very least millions dead, which is a monumental risk.
Look, terabytes of back-and-forth in internet comments has happened over this. The calculation you are asking to do is not a realistic scenario. The pandemic is gonna come out to be on the order of one year’s worth of smoking. People have been dying totally preventable deaths due to cigarettes at that rate your entire life.
"The calculation you are asking to do is not a realistic scenario."
Yes - with the original lock down, with extensive social distancing measures - the 'end result' will be in the same order of magnitude as 'smoking' (actually much more) - but without suppressive measures it would be apocalyptic.
It's entirely plausible to estimate: it's in the order of millions of dead in a short period. It would probably be the 'worst disaster in US history by a long shot'. Probably worse than all wars in including Civil War and WW1 + WW2 combined.
FYI The UK and Sweden were estimating 60-80% of the population infected in order to get 'herd immunity' - so given the IFR/CFRs stated above ... that's millions of Americans dead, and just as many with lingering effects.
some emergencies in life call for one to gather up the courage and valor to storm normandy beach, believing death to be very likely imminent. this emergency calls for patience and stoicism. life is a numbers game. I almost died a few hours ago on my way to the mountain view costco for some fruit, sausages and croissants. a vehicle ran a red light and passed between my car and the car i was following through the intersection. I need my car to enable my lifestyle, but I wear my seatbelt, not that a seatbelt would’ve saved me tonight. I’m 40 years old, and covid may well take me if i’m so statistically unlucky, but I’ll wear my mask, avoid air conditioned crowded indoor spaces and social gatherings IRL. I hate this pandemic for stealing a year or three of my life, but I will continue to try to manage my risks, recognize what threats I can, and look for enjoyment and fulfillment in the areas of life that are available to me in the present. I look forward to resuming my normal patterns of life, whenever appropriate.
"It was already very clear in February that this disease rarely killed anyone under 60,"
CFR 0.5% for 40-49
You do realize that 40 is not that old? And that 0.5% CFR is really quite high?
Are you maybe one of those '22 and feeling indestructible' people? How could someone possibly talk about 0.4 CFR and greater CFR for an age-diverse population and not realize how extremely dangerous that is?
And it's 'quite serious' for probably 8-14% of those - and that they may get life-long consequences?
And the CFR jumps quite high when there is a lack of medical facilities?
And the R0/transmissibility is really quite high, not like some 'rare disorder' - it's something that without suppression almost all of us will contract. The 'young and partied' are now becoming walking Death Adders, it's a 'systematic issue' and not very helpful to point out that 'some are less likely to die' just as they are the 'root cause of spread'.
Even if was just to 'protect the elderly' a the shut down was easily warranted.
There are 200 000 deaths from COVID more than US Combat Deaths in Iraq, Vietnam, Korean wars combined - in just a few months.
This is the most devastating and deadly thing to happen to America in at least a century, the lock-down was reasonable, there were probably even other measures we should have been taking.
Social distancing on an interpersonal social level is 'economically inexpensive' for god sakes, we're more resilient than to have to be able to 'party' every week or few.
We have to be smart about this but all things considered we have no choice.
What we 'could have done differently' was probably a) react sooner b) move more aggressively in elderly care c) wore masks and d) had a plan for this ready beforehand instead of making it up as we go along.
Edit: Please do the calculation given: 1) your stated CFR rates 2) the 'herd immunity threshold' of 60-80% of population infected 3) an aggressive R0 meaning that this would happen quite quickly 4) adjustment to CFR given overflowing hospitals and lack of available staff - and the numbers are excessively bad, at very least millions dead, which is a monumental risk.