By matching what happens in Belarus now to Russia.

It was long believed, even in US, that Lukashenka had the majority. In reality, he faked all elections since 1994.

Once his deeds became hard to ignore even for pathetically peaceful Belarusians, all the population turned against him. Gosh, the exit poll in my voting station recorded only one vote for Lukashenka among 358. I was there watching the exit poll for a couple of hours. I fully trust the organizers, but one in 358... I could not even imagine it.

Same for Russia.

P.S. Yes, I have a Belarusian passeport. Yes, I run a Russian-speaking community site. Pass on.

The election results had him at ~80% votes, if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic numbers. If I have just 40% support, I might go for showing it to be about 55%, so that it at least looks close.

I think he did rig elections but he might have had majority already, which makes his numbers look so unrealistic or he is just plain stupid to not even rig elections to make them look believable.

I do really sympathize with the Belarussian people though, every community should get a say on who represents them.

>would he really go for such unrealistic numbers

I am from Kazakhstan. If you've ever heard of it, would you consider it to be an autocratic state? Because according to the official results our beloved leader received 98% of votes in an election a few years back. Now that's an unrealistic number for sure.

98% still can't beat 146%

https://www.alux.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/25-insane-cr...

At that point, why even a facade. :)

That's how these things have always worked. Autocratic leaders like to have "elections" that they win by unrealistic margins.

I can see how that might be a power trip.

>if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic number

You are assuming someone has an overview of the rigging being done. It's probably more chaotic than that. If 1000 different people are chucking opponents' votes into furnaces, how do you coordinate hitting that number?

He just told his long-time ally the head od Central Electoral Comission to give him 80%. It is THAT simple.

If that is true, quite stupid of him then. I hope things work out for you guys.

> if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic numbers

He would if he wanted his quiet dissidents to feel isolated and his loud ones to be that much easier to find.

It's not that much different than other leaders declaring there are no gay people in their country.

That depends on whether the purpose of the election result is to be universally accepted as an accurate reflection of public sentiment or just to say, the opposition couldn't have won

> would he really go for such unrealistic numbers

That part is pretty well established by now.

Coincidentally, he established again a level of support a couple percentage points above Putin, who received "just" 78% last election.

And how does what happens in Belarus match what happens in Russia? Lukashenka and Putin are different kinds of people, they do different politics, Russian and Belarussian governments are not that alike. Just because both of them are "dictators" doesn't mean their people think the same about them.