> Basically, the constituency for retaining most existing means-tested benefit programs is left-wing opponents of UBI/NIT. But the right-wing supporters of UBI, left-wing supporters of UBI, and right-wing opponents of UBI together are almost certainly going to be a bigger block.
You forgot another voting bloc: beneficiaries of the current welfare systems, who might well get less money from UBI than they do from the current systems.
You forgot another voting bloc: beneficiaries of the current welfare systems, who might well get less money from UBI than they do from the current systems.