VW were originally saying the ID.3 was going to be priced similarly to a Golf diesel. I wonder what changed.

Did it change? That was for the base model which they won't be selling until next year, and including the German government incentive. https://insideevs.com/news/406682/vw-id3-cost-compared-with-...

It seems live that government incentive hit really good because the price I read beginning this year was around 40k€ in Germany while you get the Zoe for 21k (without incentive): https://www.renault.de/elektrofahrzeuge/zoe/preise-versionen...

Maybe not much cross-shopping, but since we're talking simply about total units delivered, it's not relevant whether any single consumer is cross-shopping the two options. What's relevant is whether the consumers for each are able to have their demand satisfied.

(Non car person here) How much does the Zoe run vs the model 3? I know they are very different cars but the model 3 without bells and whistles seems pretty affordable for most people.

This. I am a Zoe owner. I could not afford a Tesla. Electric cars need to be normal products, not a luxury.