- Moore's law is dead at the level of the transistor
- Architecture, HPC updates will keep coming for many years into the future
- AGI has already escaped Moore's law (i.e., development of a fully functional AGI will not be constrained by lack of Moore's law progress). And that's what really matters.
- Related note on AGI: it has escaped the data problem as well (as in we have the right kind of sensors: mainly cameras, microphones, and so on). That is, according to the categorization of AGI challenges in terms of hardware, data, algorithms, the only missing piece is the right set of algorithms.
Oh then you're not going to like what I'm going to say next:
- Somewhere between 2015 and 2025, multiple individual groups will have cracked the AGI problem independently. (but 2015 is in the past, which means there are likely groups out there that have cracked the problem and keeping it a secret).
- AGI-in-the-basement scenario is very doable and has been or will be done, many times over.
- Moore's law is dead at the level of the transistor
- Architecture, HPC updates will keep coming for many years into the future
- AGI has already escaped Moore's law (i.e., development of a fully functional AGI will not be constrained by lack of Moore's law progress). And that's what really matters.
- Related note on AGI: it has escaped the data problem as well (as in we have the right kind of sensors: mainly cameras, microphones, and so on). That is, according to the categorization of AGI challenges in terms of hardware, data, algorithms, the only missing piece is the right set of algorithms.