Counterpoint: If the PRC takes over now, they own the process technology NVIDIA and AMD depend on. They can tell the Americans to go pound sand, good luck on your next supercomputer project, and dedicate all production to Chinese origin designs - with a helping of industrial espionage for a kick start. That’s a pretty powerful incentive for aggression that would be reduced if TSMC’s operations were more distributed. So it’s somewhat balanced out.
I think the bigger problem is the assumption that Americans can properly safeguard Taiwanese IP. Anything you send over here you might as well cc: Beijing on the email.
China doesn't need that technology very badly, if they can just stay making CPUs they'll be able to figure a GPU architecture eventually. Don't forget that Chinese Kirin CPUs have and will outcompete Qualcomm and Samsung.
I don’t doubt it. There will be a slowing convergence and eventually one curve will overtake the other and one day a Chinese design is the fastest GPU.
What I’m talking about is the capability of instantly kneecapping the US tech industry. A sudden differential advantage created by denying capabilities to your adversary. That’s what makes the current semiconductor situation a geopolitical tinder box.
Counterpoint: If the PRC takes over now, they own the process technology NVIDIA and AMD depend on. They can tell the Americans to go pound sand, good luck on your next supercomputer project, and dedicate all production to Chinese origin designs - with a helping of industrial espionage for a kick start.
This should terrify the US, which is the ideal. The US needs to go to bat for Taiwan, which won't happen when they have less incentive to.
China is willing to take independent countries for lesser and pettier reasons than semiconductors. Look what they've done to Hong Kong. Taiwan's been a thorn in its side for years. Distribute it around, China will still want to take Taiwan, the US has less of a reason to go to bat for it.
Sure, but if they can’t deny US industry the ability to operate that’s one less reason to invade Taiwan. If I’m Taiwanese, I’m probably not confident about surviving a conflict even if the US “goes to bat” for me.
On balance you may be right, because China’s desire to control Taiwan is not exactly the result of a rational strategic calculation. Interesting times...
I think the bigger problem is the assumption that Americans can properly safeguard Taiwanese IP. Anything you send over here you might as well cc: Beijing on the email.