I think a bit of both #1 and #2, I think you will see a large exodus of people from SF as it is very densely populated and you have people with many roommates who make very good money compared to the rest of the US. I see that crowd leaving for cheaper pastures in droves(#2). There are alot of companies that have positions that are tied to location, hardware engineers, execs, etc, these people will stay and that will point to #1. So I think the prices in SF will drop, and prices in the south bay will at worst stay flat and possibly go up as it is mostly single family homes and the companies in the area are doing very well, (google, apple, netflix, zoom)