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Its also backwards looking, obviously. In the boomer working years, colleges were very selective and a degree was a stealth IQ test along with socioeconomic group membership.

At this point the average IQ of a college grad is very close to 100. I guarantee that within the next 30 to 40 years someone will make the shocking discovery that the presence or absence of a degree has no influence on income, success, or happiness.

At that point the ponzi scheme of higher ed can collapse.

There's nothing wrong with designing and implementing an education system for the top 5% of society and the jobs that top 5% will likely have. There is a big problem with a marketing scam along the lines of every American is a temporarily inconvenienced millionaire.

Surely, my favorite waitress at Dennys is making more money as a waitress than she would as a K12 educator, if she could get hired, which she cannot. The degree does not make her a better person nor a better waitress. It does signal that she's in maybe the top 50% of humanity WRT the skills required to get a degree. She's a somewhat better than average person because of who she is, not a meaningless piece of paper for training she will never use. The point of discussing my favorite waitress is we need "something" to signal in the job market who is in the upper half of potential employees, and $100K of debt and four years of labor seem a huge waste on a civilizational level.




Lots of research done on this by Bryan Caplan (Princeton) [1], the TLDR is return on a degree is mostly signaling.

[1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Case_Against_Education

P.S. Signaling is very profitable for the individual benefitting from the signaling, it just isn't good for society.




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