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> I sent a quick reply two minutes later:

> For now, I think the risk from the ordinary flu is much much greater! But worth watching to see if it becomes a real pandemic.

Nope. Lost all credibility right there. Do not pass GO, do not collect 2 minutes of attention. Sorry.

Oh, you've learned something from the error and you've updated your priors? Great, good for you. You're still unreliable.




This seems overly harsh. Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4, so this standard makes almost everyone have no credibility, including people who don't admit to the error. All humans are unreliable.


Here's a blog post from February 6 by Greg Cochran, one of the people mentioned. Looks pretty good in retrospect https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/strategy-not-the-f...


> Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4

Plenty who were paying attention took it seriously




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