A 1% death rate is 3 million people in the US, assuming 100% infection rate. A .3% death rate is about 1 million. I hope we’re so fortunate to keep it below 1 million.
Hope isn't reality. Overall 20%-50% infection rate is most likely because of the multiple infection waves due to cycles of shutdowns and the extreme infectivity that will occur before a safe and effective vaccine candidate can be manufactured. That maybe 3-5 years. Also, post-resolution immunity duration is unknown.
Furthermore, infection rates in the US aren't being tracked so the CFR denominator is completely unknown.
And, focusing on CFR alone is myopic because of the serious, potentially permanent lung damage that occurs from this virus in those who have "mild" symptoms. There are a plethora of reports of unknown-lasting reductions in lung function by 20-30%.
