Well said. Nobody seems to know what is being done with the time we're 'buying'. I get the feeling everyone just thinks if we sit at home for a month (or two? or three!?!), it will just magically go away. This site even admits "A second spike in disease may occur after social distancing is stopped". It's very possible that sitting at home will just delay the acceleration phase, and it will rear it's ugly head after we come out of out caves.
Why have we all (I'm speaking for people in the USA) immediately bought into the idea that shutting down out lives and the economy is the only way to combat this thing? South Korea didn't shut everything down in an authoritarian fashion, and they already have this thing beat. I know, not a fair comparison, USA is way bigger, less experienced in handling disease outbreaks, different governments, etc, etc. But aren't there smarter ways we can handle this than just blanket isolation & lock downs?
From the CDC:
"Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic."
So we know from South Korea's example it is possible to hit acceleration phase, execute a smart plan of attack, and have it carry you into deceleration, without blanket lock downs. Lock downs can still be an effective tool, and should be used in areas seeing steep acceleration to take pressure off the medical system.
Our plan doesn't have to be exactly the same, but we can learn from theirs. Seems like nobody is even trying to think out of the box. We just accepted that we have to turn our country into an authoritarian state and that's the only way to beat this.
Focusing on making testing widely and easily accessible is key for sure. If people could easily get a test, it would eliminate a lot of the fear/ uncertainly that is gripping everyone. Healthy people who are at low risk to get severe reactions could go about there lives normally, while still practicing 'social distancing' in public, not locked away in their homes in fear
>I know, not a fair comparison, USA is way bigger, less experienced in handling disease outbreaks, different governments, etc, etc. But aren't there smarter ways we can handle this than just blanket isolation & lock downs?
Not if you don't have as advanced infrastructure, quick government, and decisive politicians like Korea, and 1/4th of the country is in third world conditions regarding access to healthcare, or even shelter, etc.
> Health people who are at low risk to get severe reactions could go about there lives normally, while still practicing 'social distancing' in public, not locked away in their homes in fear
You don't need tests for that, just common sense. If you have low risk, by all means keep working while keeping high sanitary precautions. It's unrealistic to expect all people to stay at home, hence those of us who are likely to get a mild COVID-19 case should make sure the people at risk or already sick have services while they stay at home.
If you're healthy, take precautions and still get COVID-19, after recovering you become another line of defense with your new immunity.
That being said, tests are very important, but don't wait for free and widely available tests to decide if you can keep working, your circumstances decide that.
> Nobody seems to know what is being done with the time we're 'buying'.
You're allowing people to get infected, but reducing the rate at which they get infected, thus allowing your healthcare system to cope with the demand while the rest of society slowly builds immunity.
Yeah, I just wish we were doing it it a more precise way. Ramp up the more aggressive measures only in the areas seeing acceleration.
My girlfriend’s brother in-law owns a large, successful restaurant in the city next door. They city has only 1 confirmed case, and that guy got it from traveling to Italy. Still the governor threw a blanket ban on restaurant dining rooms, and they are forced to lay off most of their workforce.
I doubt his business will fail, but he told me he already knew of two other restaurants in the city that already went out of business because of such low traffic even before the lockdown. Seems like we should implement these bans in a more targeted way.
Your aprocach in this is the problem. Your girlfriend's bother in law's customers and staff, on the way to that establishment, and within, could easily be spreading the virus. Untested, without symptoms, simply going about their usual lives. This is why we're seeing tested cases in the US (now that there's tests) rise so suddenly. There is no 'only 1 person has it in a town). That was my town yesterday, with only one case, and then bam, more people got tested.
Basically we need a timeout to recover from and reassess a month of negligent inaction. The time to institute a "smart plan of attack" relying on easy testing/public temperature checks/physical distancing was three weeks ago, when we still had headroom to weather the results.
Why have we all (I'm speaking for people in the USA) immediately bought into the idea that shutting down out lives and the economy is the only way to combat this thing? South Korea didn't shut everything down in an authoritarian fashion, and they already have this thing beat. I know, not a fair comparison, USA is way bigger, less experienced in handling disease outbreaks, different governments, etc, etc. But aren't there smarter ways we can handle this than just blanket isolation & lock downs?
From the CDC:
"Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic."
So we know from South Korea's example it is possible to hit acceleration phase, execute a smart plan of attack, and have it carry you into deceleration, without blanket lock downs. Lock downs can still be an effective tool, and should be used in areas seeing steep acceleration to take pressure off the medical system.
Our plan doesn't have to be exactly the same, but we can learn from theirs. Seems like nobody is even trying to think out of the box. We just accepted that we have to turn our country into an authoritarian state and that's the only way to beat this.
Focusing on making testing widely and easily accessible is key for sure. If people could easily get a test, it would eliminate a lot of the fear/ uncertainly that is gripping everyone. Healthy people who are at low risk to get severe reactions could go about there lives normally, while still practicing 'social distancing' in public, not locked away in their homes in fear