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The US has averaged over 30% daily increases in infections for the last 20 days. 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 = 2.2x growth every 3 days making that 4 day doubling optimistic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t...

New infections are modeled to noticeably slow down once ~1/5 of the total population is infected, but at that point things have already fallen apart.



The US has also been ramping up testing, assuming number of infections is a linear function of known cases is a mistake.


We are not doing 16,000 / 42 = 380x more tests per day on March 20th vs March 1st. It’s not even obvious if we are overlooking a larger fraction of infections today than back then.

Also of note that 30% daily increase I spoke of underestimates the difference between March 1 and March 20th.




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