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If the news says "China puts 760 million people on travel restrictions", you should look at the price of puts.


This.

It was really just insurance. I fully expected the $1k I bought to expire worthless, and the first $230 did, but these ones I was able to exit for a nice profit.

I highly suspect the expected value of options trading is negative, but it's useful as a hedge. Really wish I could spend like 10% of my salary on put options for my employer in case I get laid off, but it's forbidden apparently.


Insurance by definition is negative expected value (otherwise insurance companies wouldn't be in business). Great job hedging!




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