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If you're from Seattle, then the recent research of Trevor Bedford (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center) and the Seattle Flu Study group might be relevant - they've posted a quick summary on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233971278735761409 while there's still the weekend; but in essence they've done genetic analysis of the Covid-19 strains in Washington sate, and it suggests the following worrying things:

1. their analysis (virus mutations / differences in individual patients?) suggests it has been spreading in Washington state for some 6 weeks already;

2. "Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections" (that's about WA only! not the entire USA) - it's not confirmed and identified cases, but the number suggested by virus variation; it's not like there's 6 patients who have all been "imported" or form a single clear cluster, they have been infected by some patients who have not been identified, have not been isolated, and have been spreading it in the cummunity.

To me the situation in Washington State seems very similar to where Italy was a week ago.



Why add the word "worrying" to your statement - just leave it neutral. No need to make people panic. It only leads to irrational behavior.

For context - what might have happened in WA could actually be a positive spin on the story. It would mean that the virus has been spreading for much longer than anticipated and the number of infected people might be 100x or 1000x the reported number. It's "positive" as it pushes the denominator up quite significantly, which would mean that the fatality rate is much closer to a "normal" Influenza than anything else.

If their profiling turns out to be correct - we're in a "much better situation" than we thought.


You couldn't be more right. Just wait for the news from kirkland hospital that should be coming out today


Upvoting and boosting:

There is strong evidence that the Seattle area is where Italy was a week ago.




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