I think it's disingenuous to put "the slightest hiccup" and "<2 years" in the same bucket. Even counting a 6 months warm-up phase, it becomes very clear from interactions with your managers, customers and HR, if a job works out for you.
Let's say you put out a plan for your professional development within the first year at a new job, and you point out within 6/9/12 months that you are instead put on dead-end projects, working on unchallenging problems that don't reflect your career interests - that's not going to change after 2 more years in that job.
I think it's disingenuous to put "the slightest hiccup" and "<2 years" in the same bucket. Even counting a 6 months warm-up phase, it becomes very clear from interactions with your managers, customers and HR, if a job works out for you.
Let's say you put out a plan for your professional development within the first year at a new job, and you point out within 6/9/12 months that you are instead put on dead-end projects, working on unchallenging problems that don't reflect your career interests - that's not going to change after 2 more years in that job.