> But I think some underestimate how soon the developers and programmers of the world will crater from "elite 10%/5%/1%" to something resembling median salary.
I generally agree with this. I think for the traditional programmer building apps and apis this begins to happen in 5-10 years. We'll essentially become mechanics. However, there is always the next front of technology that you can surf.
For millennia those on the forefront of technological progress have done well relative to the rest of people. This was due to having skills that were relatively rare, access to equipment that was uncommon or both. Blacksmiths, photographers, car mechanics, stock traders, etc. Programming in certain verticals will be added to that list.
But imo there is good news. Being able to create or deploy new technology in ways that creates or protects wealth will always be in demand. And the thing about programming is you are first-and-foremost a problem-solver. Couple that with technical math-based skills and you can bring immense value to most organizations.
If you are a "programmer"--I really don't like that term, but whatever. My advice would be to be trained in multiple disciplines across multiple verticals. Know how to look at a business or social problem and deduce it to its fundamental inputs/outputs so that you can then construct a solution that turns those inputs/outputs into the desired result.
Hand-wavy, but that really is the key to being valuable. Solve real problems.
I generally agree with this. I think for the traditional programmer building apps and apis this begins to happen in 5-10 years. We'll essentially become mechanics. However, there is always the next front of technology that you can surf.
For millennia those on the forefront of technological progress have done well relative to the rest of people. This was due to having skills that were relatively rare, access to equipment that was uncommon or both. Blacksmiths, photographers, car mechanics, stock traders, etc. Programming in certain verticals will be added to that list.
But imo there is good news. Being able to create or deploy new technology in ways that creates or protects wealth will always be in demand. And the thing about programming is you are first-and-foremost a problem-solver. Couple that with technical math-based skills and you can bring immense value to most organizations.
If you are a "programmer"--I really don't like that term, but whatever. My advice would be to be trained in multiple disciplines across multiple verticals. Know how to look at a business or social problem and deduce it to its fundamental inputs/outputs so that you can then construct a solution that turns those inputs/outputs into the desired result.
Hand-wavy, but that really is the key to being valuable. Solve real problems.