Could someone please explain what the long-term goal of the protesters is? Best case scenario, HK and Chinese government postpone the integration until 2047. What then? When the borders come down, what will happen to all those who openly talked against Beijing government, held candlelight vigils for Tienanmen Square victims, and rallied and protested against a government who does not like people protesting and does not shy away from killing thousands or putting millions in concentration camps.
Do all protesters in HK plan to emigrate before 2047 or do they think they can convince Beijing to keep away even after that date?
They are idealists, their parents and grandparents were not subjected to Cultural revolution and rest of the brutality of PRC. They think they can keep the city they love as it is.
Realistically their only hope is collapse of PRC. Never say never and who knows they might help it happen.
I have quite a few classmates back from university (end of 90s start of 2000s) whose families saw writing on the wall, had enough $$ and got the fuck out while going was good.
Not necessarily. A respectful and long-term oriented Beijing would be fine. (The CPC would need to change, to prevent a dictator-for-life like Xi from re-emerging.)
There are a lot of win-win outcomes between the subjugation of Hong Kong and collapse of China.
Depends on how you define a regime. If we can be a bit wishy-washy, Deng rewrote the constitution from scratch and was essentially running it like a new regime, but still paid lip service to Mao to prevent mutiny. A similar change is not unthinkable if Hu/Wen/Li's liberal faction gets in power.
this is an interesting criticism. I would have characterized the Chinese leadership of having a much more long-term outlook than the vast majority of other countries.
They are long term on many things, but not things that concern national pride. It is unclear what threat a semiautonomous HK actually presents to them, beyond just being a bunch of people near Shenzhen who can say mean things about you. It’s not like a rebellion could start there, they would be perfectly happy being left alone.
The threat of HK is that the mainlanders might start wanting some democracy for themselves.
In a way China made a mistake asking for HK back. While it was British they had a convenient boogeyman to point to, now it is part of China, Beijing has nowhere to hide, and the only option they have is to destroy it. This will be a painful process for both Beijing and HK.
There is a genuine fear of social disintegration if democracy were implemented in the mainland. Unfortunately, since Tian'anmen Square, the CPC has lacked leaders with the wisdom and guts to experiment with political reform and so now, HK's 1C2S is a threat that needs to be fire-walled off instead of an opportunity.
In terms of political culture, I don't think either side really understands the other.
I'm not 100% across Chinese politics, but from what I understand the Politburo[1] (where the top leaders sit, including Xi) are voted in by the Central Committee [1].
But the Central Committee isn't really an independent body, and the people who sit there are selected by the Politburo - effectively the Politburo members just vote themselves in.
(P.s. as mentioned I'm not 100% across the politics in China so happy to be corrected)
Is there not some sort of democratic structure that allows people to have a say in their government? If you took a survey of random Chinese people would they say Xi Xinping is some dictator that they don't want there?
I think part of the reason that the number of people protesting has grown over the years is that a lot of the people who would have been protesters left around '97. A new generation has grown up with many basic freedoms and they don't want to give those up... And they don't want to leave HK either. I'm not sure if it's harder to get visas to other countries nowadays, but a lot of people are choosing to stay and fight for their country and their way of life rather than running away.
>And they don't want to leave HK either. I'm not sure if it's harder to get visas to other countries nowadays, but a lot of people are choosing to stay and fight for their country and their way of life rather than running away.
That's likely true for many people, but there percentage of people that are so dissatisfied that they want to emigrate is very large - 57% of 18-30 year olds indicated they would emigrate if given the chance in a CUHK survey earlier this year:
"Around two-fifths (38.9%) of respondents indicated they would emigrate to other places if they got the chance...younger people (e.g. aged 18-30: 57.0%) had a higher tendency to emigrate.."
"Top pushing factors for emigration among those inclined to move were “dissatisfaction with SAR government / government performance / Chief Executive / high-ranking government officials” (11.0%), “overcrowded living conditions” (10.5%), “too much political dispute / social cleavage” (10.3%), and “slow economic growth or bad economic prospect” (10.3%)."
The ace in the hole for Hong Kong is that Beijing wants to unify with Taiwan as well and is promoting their relationship with Hong Kong as a possible model for how that might work. They want to demonstrate to Taiwan that they could reunify and Taiwan could still retain a degree of autonomy.
Beijing agreed to stay hands-off Hong Kong until 2047, but that doesn't necessarily mean the entire judicial, legal and political system in Hong Kong will become null and void overnight. In principle of course Beijing will be able to do whatever they like, but it seems at leas plausible that they will incrementally re-form the system in HK to their liking over time rathe than in one blow. In fact things like the extradition bill, which you can bet was at least reviewed and approved by Beijing if not dictated by them, is an attempt to start that process now through indirect means.
Ideally for Beijing, such indirect means would be the only means necessary even after 20147. Why impose change if you can present it as driven by HK legislators themselves?
Indeed, 28 years ago China was not even a dictatorship!
It is foolish to think China in another 28 years is going to be nicer. Despot regimes get worse before they collapse. Sadly even the collapse is not a reprieve.
The thing though is that until recently, one could argue that China was going in the right direction... The liberal faction was much more tolerable to HKers... The current government with Xi Jinping is a relapse to a more despotic regimes...
It's also not true, Chiang Kai-shek's son inherited the power from his father but paved the way to Democracy so sometimes despot regimes actually do progress for the better.
Problem here is the definition of 'better'. We'd need to find a common ground of agreement on that before deciding if it is better now or 30 years ago. Perhaps the answer isn't even a simple yes/no.
This is indeed true. I find it quite surprising that most Chinese people in PRC believe that it will, though. I suppose one can have 5000 years of cultural history but that does not imply that lessons have been learned.
They're fighting for a democratic China. Nobody else within the Chinese political sphere is so overtly standing up to xi jinping.
I think it's good. They're giving hope to fellow supporters of Chinese democracy. There's people like that on the mainland and they don't have much else to give them hope.
One Country, Two Systems actually stipulates that Hong Kong shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy for "at least" 50 years, there is nothing that state what will actually happen afterwards.
Therefore it is conceivable for Hong Kong to remain somewhat autonomous after 2047, after which, it is possible for mainland China to further develop politically and legally so that integration would cause less of an issue.
I think the reason they are doing that is because if people do notice that all their rights are gone waking up one day in 2047, what would happen then would dwarf the protests we see now. They would rather portray HK as bickering over something minor many times then being in open revolt over a huge infringement of all their rights at the same time.
What alternative do you propose for them? emigrate now? By 2047 many things could change, maybe China would become more democratic, maybe it would be easier to build a floating city, maybe indeed China would agree to leave more autonomy. The long term plan for everyone is to die, but improving things in short term is still worth it.
Emigrate to where? Taiwan? Singapore? Other places with a vibrant Chinese community? By 2047 things could change for the worse. You're being overly optimistic when all signs hint that it's getting worse. They're too close to mainland with the PLA at their doorstep.
Naturally most people do things they think they can continue doing in the future. The more HKers value their way of life and defend it the more difficult it will be to tear down the walls just like that. Facts on the ground influence political outcomes.
Several of the people that I've asked in Hong Kong say that they're simply fighting to protect the city that they love. There are many paths that the future can take, and while a lot of them do not look good for the way of life of many Hong Kongers, if they don't fight now then they're giving up their city freely. And to do that is just unfathomable.
There is no end really, and absent a working political process to absorb and debate demands, street protests can always turn toward the extreme. That's why it's dangerous to force people to go this route.
Unfortunately there will be a red line somewhere, and for China it is probably one or two steps away on that list. Remember, Tian'anmen Square also spiraled out of control from very mild beginnings.
These days CCP's action is getting less free.
With Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and friends around the town it's no longer the cheapest labor to the point of being able to ignore the world's value.
There's a price to be leveraged for every move.
I think most protesters are optimistic that if they can keep on winning each political battle like this, something dramatic can happen in their favor in 2047.
Also even if nothing can be changed, one perspective is that it is better to vocally reject rather than accepting in silence.
You can also say that we are all going to die in < 100 years, let's don't eat/work/play/etc. But of course no body would stop doing things. We should always try to make the best of our lives.
2047 is 28 years from now. Twenty eight years ago, the Soviet Union still existed (until December). Twenty eight years ago, Chinese GDP per capita was $359.
I believe there are two different crowds. The older one does the candle light vigils. The younger one wants HK independence and doesn't really care about the rest of China. But it would be great if the second group learned a bit of history, including of protest movements in the mainland, and showed that all-China vision you speak of. It could only help themselves and help everyone.
They don't. That's why youngsters are the driving force for changes, they destroy. It is not a bad thing. The real driving force to make change is actually power. When these protests are aligned with some power, things go change. I am certain things won't happen in countries such as US or China. For smaller and weaker countries, maybe.
For your question you must have to see not through the lens of a unified Hong Kong. Hong Kong is really international.
Firstly, there are four - June 9 1m+ then jun 9 evening; June 12 with some conflict but mostly the young one trying to stop the bill without this the bill would not have even suspended; jun 16 the 2m+. their composition are very different. The target is also different.
My comment and the article hopefully give you some hint on the jun 9 and jun 12 1 and 2m+. They are across spectrum of whole Hong Kong.
May I roughly said 1/2 of hker have foreign passport or at least have relatives overseas. Many of the protestors are not want to go but do have a place to go. Or try hard to. You may note those hongkonges’ link as 29 cities around the world join the protest. That segment join not to emigrate as they did it already. The law affected them staying in Hong Kong. But more importantly they would affect the Hong Kong status as it affect the foreigner as well.
You have to aware many of the objection to the law are coming from official diplomatic with official letters from Eu, Britain and many different USA camp. The 85,000 American lived here is a force. There are foreigners in the protest. If they go, Hongkong is done.
(There are another group. About 1m of hker are not really hker. They just come in the last 20 years for various reasons. The huawei woman in Canada is holding 3 hk passport. I suspect they might not have join the protest as they conf to hk to hide etc. Now they trigger others as if these group go the property markets may die. Hk is the most expensive place in the world to own a car park size flat. Other then foreigner these affect is key.)
This 2m+ protest is very unusual as many are pro-china and pro-establishment camp. For this they will no doubt stay. But it is driving away foreigner and hidden chinese rich that would affect them.
Guess you are after the two major protest but the conflict one. We are not sure about the brick throwing etc. But quite sure many of the protestor as reported by those hymns signing Christian are young kids. They call hk home. They would fight by putting their body between the gun and the legislature chamber to prevent the bill to pass. They are less calculated than we adults. They saw this as a beginning of end of Hong Kong as the chinese law come to rule. At all cost they have to stop it.
One protestor said clearly “shoot me dead is better than this” and then she join the effort encircling the chamber. Many young one was hurt as there is no weapon. One of my friend trying to help found out first time it hurt a lot when tear gas residue touch your skin. And she is just helping. But whilst crying and painful our kids just wash their eyes and skins. And go back. One said “I do not want to give up”. All still lost as the chamber finally was cleared. In fact they will charge 7-10 year in jail if caught. (And if they had gone to Hosiptal and without the doctor and nurse reporting them somehow the police know. Two get arrested this way.)
But the story leaked out to us all. Unlike umbrella movement there is no leader. None. Just kids organised themselves using telegram where to go. It was a shock to oldies like us. Self organised ... no match to riot police. But just kids fighting for their home.
The community know and shock. That is why one of the slogan is to not to define this as riot and release the student involved. In the protest sometimes I can see parents walking not very normal protestor like. Then I saw a boy or a girl around. You can sense what is going on. I suspect they come is to ensure the kid not to do this alone. May be they drag them out if something happen.
Before I went to protest one of my neigbour looking at me wearing black t shirt. They said they would not go themselves. But they told a bit their family and relatives story. It is like everyone know someone’s kid are involved. As she said in the past she blamed the activist. But all in jail now. These kids just went themselves. They are nice kids not troublemaker they said. Help them is their message if they are pro government.
These kids are not going to go anywhere. Better die than run, unlike their parents like us. Hong Kong is their home. 2047. I do not see they see there is a deadline. It is their motherland. Hong Kong is not China. Hong Kong is Hong Kong.
Hence even shocking to us usual protestor, the whole community move to protect their kids. I never saw so many people in my life m. I have even joined the jun 9 million people protest and June 16 is a totally different scale.
Not sure I answer your question as I do not know what are their strategy, tactics or plan. but I hope I give you an impression as one protestor following the case. It is a shock. If we live long enough you will see either a tragedy or a birth of a nation. God bless.
>One of my friend trying to help found out first time it hurt a lot when tear gas residue touch your skin. And she is just helping. But whilst crying and painful our kids just wash their eyes and skins. And go back.
My favorite line that I heard from one protester was "tear gas isn't so bad, it's sort of just like chopping onions. I eat spicy food worse than it all the time". You can't help but smile at that kind of attitude.
Do all protesters in HK plan to emigrate before 2047 or do they think they can convince Beijing to keep away even after that date?