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Me quantum-tunneling out of my chair to Mars is improbable, but so improbable that it can be considered impossible... an event that will certainly never occur within the entire lifetime of the universe is indistinguishable from one that cannot occur. At that point, differentiating between the improbable and impossible is splitting hairs.

But at least quantum mechanics exists within the framework of what we know to be provable reality. The supernatural doesn't - making it even less probably than me spontaneously teleporting to Mars like John Carter.

The spiritualism that Arthur Conan Doyle believed in and the seances he attended were fraudulent, as were the Cottingley Faerie photos (which he believed were real because the photographs looked convincingly real to him.) I'm certain that he eliminated all other mundane possibilities from his mind to arrive at the supernatural conclusions he did, but he was still wrong.

Mere process of elimination is not sufficient to prove something "however improbable." Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, still needs to be proven. Otherwise you wind up in the trap of confirmation bias.



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