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Didn't the Laffer curve on bond markets invert recently?



> Laffer curve on bond markets

Yield curve, Laffer curve unrelated


That's the one, I screwed up my terminology (not an economist, just dated one for a while).


Inflation is not up even though it was supposed to be.

Lots of things are changing because Trump doesn't follow the "experts" but have his own way of approaching China for better or worse. Right now mostly for the better.


Nothing has been better yet. So far it has only been not-catastrophically worse.


GDP above 3%. As in above the 2% that the last administration forecast it to never get, ever again.


Lowest unemployment since 1969. That's better.


It's the same trajectory it was before the current policies. The trend is hitting the floor as we're at full employment. (But I can't complain he's not taking us lower than that)


So when the economy is turning bad its also obamas fault i take it?


Really? Could you send a note to the soy and corn farmers?

'Trump Trade Tweets Send Grain Markets Diving to 42-Year Low' - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/grains-so...


"Mostly for the better" does not imply totally for the better. Of course you can find counterexamples, but that totally fails to answer the point. If you want to actually argue the point, you need some statistics about the economy as a whole, not about one sector.


>"Mostly for the better" does not imply totally for the better. Of course you can find counterexamples, but that totally fails to answer the point. If you want to actually argue the point, you need some statistics about the economy as a whole

Really? Lets look at the context;

>'Lots of things are changing because Trump doesn't follow the "experts" but have his own way of approaching China for better or worse. Right now mostly for the better.'

How would looking at the economy as a whole reflect on the way Trump approaches China? If I want to keep to that subject, I look at the situation with the sectors of the economy being impacted by the trade war with China and not the economy as a whole.


And I look at 4 million jobs being lost to China because Wallstreet, big companies and politicians on both sides of the political spectrum decided to trade American jobs for cheaper flatscreens, decided to introduced competition IN America through things like H1Bs and lax immigration rules both providing plenty of cheap labour and hurting ex. young black men the most because of extremely low wages.

It's not serious to take one thing and pull it out of the whole ESPECIALLY when the goal of tariffs is not to make it the new normal but to force China to give us better access to their markets.

If you can't see that we have no base for a rational discussion.


If there was only the USA and China in the game, then you'd have a good point.

Hello from Europe. The USA is also currently in a trade war with us.

So lets look at how the economies stack up.

USA GDP - $19.4 trillion

EU GDP - $18.5 trillion

China GDP - $12.2 trillion

Which trade war might be having more effect and which could end up with more economic blowback? Also, might this push China and the EU to make a temporary economic pact? Combined they haul a lot more economic weight than the USA.

edit - apparently, Trump is also starting a trade war with Japan, for reasons - https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-trade-war-has-a-new-t...

Japan GDP - $4.9 trillion


And despite all that the economy is doing as great as it is. Think about that.

Not sure why you don't think I have a point. Europe is the same problem. They've been having a good deal with the US, now Trump want the juices to flow both ways.

He is re-negotiating all the deals, thats what he ran on and he actually do what he says. I support that fully.

The problem is that you don't actually do the full analysis of this an just stop at tradwars. Look at the bigger picture and you will se there is much sense to Trumps goal.


You're confusing China losing with the US winning. We both lost.


How can the strongest economy for more or less everyone especially minorities, increasing salaries, increasing jobs in blue collar industries be the US loosing?

I think you are the one who is confusing what the trade war is about with what is economic theory.

The tarrifs is not economic policy it's a tool to win the tradewar with china and give us better terms.

How anyone can be against that is beyond me unless they working in the tech industry and don't really feel the reality of the last 30 years of destroying the american middle class.


>How anyone can be against that is beyond me unless they working in the tech industry

Most economists?


Most economists thought Trump would ruin the economy and have been wrong repeatedly.

Most economists are wrong most of the time about most things.

The proof is in the pudding.


One thing to keep in mind, you are currently in a ten year bull market, the longest running in history. There is a hell of a lot of inertia there, so I really would not be counting my chickens just quite yet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/the-bull-market-is-about-to-...


All it cost was a trillion dollars deficit tax cut, and subsidies for the farmers that can't sell their crops. Do you really believe this is sustainable?


It's not meant to be permanent.

We already introduced tarrifs, they didn't hurt the economy overall, on the contrary.

What i don't think is sustainable is the 4million americans who lost their jobs to china because of the wheeling and dealing of Wall Street and Washington.

It's worth it because if he succeeds getting better deals all Americans benefit and we stop chinas blatant abuse of things like their developing nation status and complete lack of defending IP rights and access to chinese market for most companies.

That's whats not sustainable.


I'm just not convinced the game of chicken can be won. We should actually be investing this effort in out competing, not hoping we win this idiotic game. The only real resolution I see is a return to normalcy or a dissolution of US and Chinese trade, which simply hurts us both in the long run. You act like jobs that aren't in China will come to the us when theres no guarantee of that and you're ignoring jobs lost because if this.


How do you outcompete someone who is cheating?

I am not ignoring jobs lost I am looking at a reality of the lowest unemployment we've seen in a very very long time, lowest ever for minorities.

Jobs are coming back, wages are going up.

You are completely ignoring that the reality is disproving your concern.

Whether you think it can be won or not is beside the point. I am sure you didn't think Trump could win the presidency and I am sure you though if he did the economy would be in chaos.

What about, maybe, just maybe, you were wrong and need to rethink how you think about these things?


Your logic is circular. You've already admitted that the current state is propped up and temporary and we need to ride this out and yet it's proof that Trump's policy is sound? You can't have it both ways.


If mine is circular yours are too. You cant have it both way.


How about a dodecahedron made of honey badgers?




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