I think people in our line of work can easily beat the market because we know how a lot of money is being spent and is going to be spent, well before finance guys do.
I made huge returns buying amazon and nvidia 5 or 6 years ago because I worked for a big tech company just beginning big moves into aws and machine learning and everyone I knew at other companies was telling me the same story. I bought amazon at $300 and nvidia at $30.
When people say you can’t beat the market, I think they’re wrong in that you can be well positioned to see large amounts of money being moved around well before the market becomes aware of it, if you’re in the right position.
I think you just have to think hard about how well distributed the knowledge you have is.
For example— I think we all know kubernetes is going to be a big big thing and it’s only getting started— I don’t think the market as a whole knows anything about it — my only question is which companies are set to profit from it? I suspect that commodity providers are going to slowly eat away at aws’s profit margins as people move to k8s hosting. But I don’t know who is going to be the big winner yet.
Up about 350+% over all over the past 5 years even with some losers in there. I’m just picking stocks for fun and never put any more money than my initial stake. I recognize that there’s luck and risk involved. I’m just saying that if you think carefully and have access to information that’s not widely distributed, you can make money.
I think one thing you have to get over is assuming that because everyone in your professional circle knows something, that everyone knows it. It can take years before disruptive change gets noticed, even while you’re working on it every day.
I made huge returns buying amazon and nvidia 5 or 6 years ago because I worked for a big tech company just beginning big moves into aws and machine learning and everyone I knew at other companies was telling me the same story. I bought amazon at $300 and nvidia at $30.
When people say you can’t beat the market, I think they’re wrong in that you can be well positioned to see large amounts of money being moved around well before the market becomes aware of it, if you’re in the right position.
I think you just have to think hard about how well distributed the knowledge you have is.
For example— I think we all know kubernetes is going to be a big big thing and it’s only getting started— I don’t think the market as a whole knows anything about it — my only question is which companies are set to profit from it? I suspect that commodity providers are going to slowly eat away at aws’s profit margins as people move to k8s hosting. But I don’t know who is going to be the big winner yet.