Even if you could predict the future of your investment the market will eventually catch on.
Let's say you can accurately predict the market's up or down direction a week in advance. You know it will go up so you start buying. The act of you buying drives prices up until even you don't think it's a good investment. Essentially, you've accelerated your future prediction to become today's reality.
Markets suck up information. Maybe you could make predictions in secret but as soon as you start publicizing those predictions or acting on the market, you've already changed the conditions.
All it takes is a bug in a financial model for someone to start dumping shares and affecting the market.
While markets are self correcting, they are not predictable or guaranteed to be rational.
Many people who are predicting markets are getting lucky or hoping to do it so publicly that it becomes a set fulfilling profacy.
Even if you could predict the future of your investment the market will eventually catch on.
Let's say you can accurately predict the market's up or down direction a week in advance. You know it will go up so you start buying. The act of you buying drives prices up until even you don't think it's a good investment. Essentially, you've accelerated your future prediction to become today's reality.
Markets suck up information. Maybe you could make predictions in secret but as soon as you start publicizing those predictions or acting on the market, you've already changed the conditions.
All it takes is a bug in a financial model for someone to start dumping shares and affecting the market.
While markets are self correcting, they are not predictable or guaranteed to be rational.
Many people who are predicting markets are getting lucky or hoping to do it so publicly that it becomes a set fulfilling profacy.