It’s all relative, isn’t it? Since tokens have no utility or intrinsic value, or economic connection to any other thing, then they are almost pure expressions of commodity pricing: at any given moments, they are worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for them, no more or less. They just blow around according to the fleeting whims of the market.
I’d be fascinated to learn how many of those yelling were just bag holders looking for a chance to dump their “assets” and not be the last man standing when the music stopped.
Seriously, make your own estimations, and buy a percentage at each price step if you think crypto is interesting (ie if you want to have a positive position)
Assuming I have exactly your expectatooms, at 1000, I would spend half my budget , at 500 25%, at $100 25% leaving 0, because if it goes below 100 I will have some time in front of me to wait for a bump :-)
But seriously, I think your expectations are a bit lowl It already rebounding in a trap. I would say anything below 6 is unlikely to last long, given how quickly similar crashes recovered this summer.
So 4 is my starting point for "blood in the steet"
Man, what hubris. I have to say that the most enticing thing to a human is to find a pattern, even where there is none. You cant make predictions purely on prices, because that is the information itself of what predictions were.
Crypto money has some big red-alerts. Billions poured in. Potentially billions in money laundry. Extreme concertation between high-stake players. And you want to guess what the future holds by looking at the historical price?
I do not think there is any pattern, just fundamentals that I believe in.
I want to acquire coins not for the price now, but in 20 years from now. I want the cheapest price possible because I have only so much cash to spend on that.
I have an amount earmarked for aqusition, and a rule to spend it. I do not care much about the/3 red alerts. Quite the opposite: I see that as indicators of interest.
Remember the article you submitted in 2013, annoucing Bitcoin was at 650? 5 years later, now, it is at 10x that price. I regret not buying them - even if it later crashed, because markets go up and down.
Bitcoin crashed before, it will crash again. I do not care about making the absolute best possible - just some good enough profits. 10x every 5 years is good enough for me,
What fundamentals. I think crypto-people like using that word, but dont really get what it means. There are no fundamentals on bitcoin, there is demand for its future use. If the demand drops the system goes to 0, it doesnt have a strong utility as it is today, and its best utility is money laundrying, which can and will likely dry up eventually.
Let's see: several billions worth of infrastructure (asic miners), a technology tried and tested over 10 years soon, a much better acceptance that other cryptos, a worldwide network with terahashes securing it.
Also, on the technical side, a blockchain so small that it can be synced with just an old laptop
The price will always be >0 if only for the historical value - like old coins and bills from foreign countries sold at fairs, or paper bonds that people stick on walls.
And I don't care if criminals use it, in fact that by itself almost ensure it has a bright future because criminals will always want to conduce business, and there is no competition except diamonds (also driven by demand for future use, because otherwise it's just a shiny rock)
I remember how people on HN used to bash the idea behind crypto, and it discouraged me at first. I was very stupid fo listen to them. Not anymore, now I have my plans, and I will execute them.
On and btw, I said yesterday it was unlikely to stay for long under 5.9k, was I right? I regret there was no bigger crash to buy at good prices. I really want to see a good crash!
It is unlikely for btc to stay at any price. I can also bet on volatility!
Laundrying is a good usecase, but only because its not being persecuted today. The day the SEC lands some people in jail, or intervenes tether, even that path will get closed out. BTC is not great for laundrying because of btc, but because of slow gov action. It leaves massive papertrails.
Once that usecase goes down, you need to create enough value to justify the salaries and infrastructure investment of all miners, plus the electricity they use. You need to generate the millions of dollars in value, and today, i dont see applications for it, not even wealth transfers. Maybe some storage, but not worth paying so much for, unless they are illegal.
