> It's why so much human labour has been automated. There's little reason to think driving will be any different.
Repetitive, blunt, manual labor now, and probably much basic legal/administrative/medical work in the near future. But we still pay migrant workers to harvest fruit, and I don't imagine a robot jockey winning a horse race anytime soon.
Driving a car under non-ideal conditions is incredibly complex, and relies upon human communication. For example: eye contact between a driver and pedestrian; one driver waving at another to go ahead; anticipating the behavior of an old lady in an Oldsmobile. Oh, the robots will be better drivers eventually, but it will be awhile. We humans currently manage about one death per hundred million miles; Uber made it all of two million. I expect we'll have level 5 self-driving cars about the same time we pass the Turing test.
> Harvesting fruit is far more complex than driving. It's a 3D search through a complex space.
Are you making a joke? "a 3D search [for a path that reaches the destination safely and legally] through complex space" is exactly how I would describe driving. (Also, driving is an online problem.)
Ever heard of an elevated highway, ramp, flying junction, bridge, or tunnel?
I mean, yeah the topology is not as complex as a pure unrestricted 3d space but it's also more complex than pure 2d space. It's a search through a space, and it's complex, I don't know if nitpicking about the topology adds a lot here?
That's still 2D space. A car simply can't move along the z axis, so the fact that the road itself moves in 3 dimensions is irrelevant.
Even navigational paths that consider all of the junctions, ramps, etc. are simply reduced to a weighted graph with no notion of any dimensions beyond forward and backwards.
Repetitive, blunt, manual labor now, and probably much basic legal/administrative/medical work in the near future. But we still pay migrant workers to harvest fruit, and I don't imagine a robot jockey winning a horse race anytime soon.
Driving a car under non-ideal conditions is incredibly complex, and relies upon human communication. For example: eye contact between a driver and pedestrian; one driver waving at another to go ahead; anticipating the behavior of an old lady in an Oldsmobile. Oh, the robots will be better drivers eventually, but it will be awhile. We humans currently manage about one death per hundred million miles; Uber made it all of two million. I expect we'll have level 5 self-driving cars about the same time we pass the Turing test.