I reached the same conclusion after looking into the matter for a while. I've mentioned it several times on HN and elsewhere and have yet to find anybody offering a rebuttal. Worse, there are very little simulations being done on how it's going to work in practice (admittedly that was about 6 months ago, but the decision to implement segwit/lightning had already been taken at that point anyway).

We're talking about a $100+ billion market cap cryptocurrency and nobody knows how it's going to work. It's hype, speculation and memes all the way down. The power of greed.