I think the dude deserves a bit of a break- It really doesn't matter if he got 10%, 50% or 90% of his predictions right, all that matters is whether he made better and more relevant predictions than others at the time.
On that measure, I think he scored reasonably well (Though I confess I sold some Google stock when they installed him as Director of Engineering)
No, it matters what his reasoning is, too, as it relates to just being lucky (or as I tell my nieces when they’re studying for a science class and guess the right answer: if you’re right for the wrong reasons, you’re still wrong.)
If you read his books, there’s an awful lot of hand waving and re- or mis-defining of terms to suit his arguments. It’s the sort of stuff that wouldn’t fly in a HS thesis paper, never mind as something marketed to bright minds.
The article we're discussing is about rating the accuracy of Kurzweil's predictions, it is not about the soundness of his reasoning. I agree that regardless of how we rate his predictions, the strategy he used to make those predictions has issues of its own.
On that measure, I think he scored reasonably well (Though I confess I sold some Google stock when they installed him as Director of Engineering)