Do you think market will return to this level with your current basket of equities? There is an argument that the market has too much liquidity due to QE and low rates within the fractional reserve system. If the market crashes, will the monetary policy be there to get the market to these highs within 5-10 years?
Also, if you think the market is going down, one doesn’t need perfect timing. You can get out and have cash on hand to buy later. If everything goes down 25% and you sold out 5% below the max value, you now have more money than your peers, which started in the market, to get gains in the future.
This is true, but nailing that timing is really hard. I can't remember the exact numbers but if you missed the 10 best days for the market in the last 40 years, you missed out on 70% of the gains.
Also, if you think the market is going down, one doesn’t need perfect timing. You can get out and have cash on hand to buy later. If everything goes down 25% and you sold out 5% below the max value, you now have more money than your peers, which started in the market, to get gains in the future.