I guess it depends on what one considers to be programming. For certain DSLs (audio, control systems, UIs), it seems to be doing OK. For general-purpose work, I think they will always be less desirable than text. Even after thousands of years, words are still our most powerful tool for recording and sharing new ideas.
Alan Kay's mistake is that a lot of his original work was with Papert on educating children. For early learning, having a visual/physical analog adds value. For professional work, when you already have the concepts down, it just gets in the way.
I feel this comment significantly devalues graphic novels. It's a separate art from the novel, but not an inferior one. Pictures have value for adults too.
Alan Kay's mistake is that a lot of his original work was with Papert on educating children. For early learning, having a visual/physical analog adds value. For professional work, when you already have the concepts down, it just gets in the way.