I think you read the atheist situation incorrectly. When any group grows so large it splits. There are more atheists in the US than ever and the polls indicate that number is growing.
The majority of atheists never had the goal of maintaining one large political power base, and the authors you mentioned mostly wanted adults to stop believing in fairy tales and wanted little to do with political power.
I don't see any failure in atheism other than the amount of time it is taking to gain societal acceptance in the south, which seems to have nothing to do with this discussion.
It was not a "split." It was the social justice wing of political atheism saying to the entire group that everyone must conform to their values, or get out. And I am not exaggerating about that, not even a little bit.
> I think you read the atheist situation incorrectly. When any group grows so large it splits. There are more atheists in the US than ever and the polls indicate that number is growing.
Re: group size being the primary cause... maybe?
There are plenty of non-split groups that are larger than the size the atheism community was before elevator gate, and most split groups (say, programmers divided by programming language) seem to coexist relatively peacefully.
To me, that suggests the size hypothesis is wrong. It'll need more variables if you'd like to explain the atheism community situation this without using elevatorgate (ie "a huge divisive political battle") as the primary cause.
Re: atheist headcount, this is why I referred to the "atheism community" rather than atheism generally. While I'm glad that atheism has grown, I find myself missing the conferences :/
Size and no reason to unify. There are Democratic, Republican, Communist, Apolitical, Spiritual, Agnostic, Antitheistic, Christian, Rich, Poor, Socialite, Introverted, Moral absolutist, Moral relativist, Vegetarian, Carnivorous and many more Atheists.
Reading that list you will note that there are Christian Atheists. People who claim to be Christian but reject the idea of god. They are... atypical people.
Pretty much people from any and every walk of life just say "Oh, that god thing was silly, well time to move on", and then they continue with their life.
Why would anyone expect this group to be cohesive on anything except that one thing that literally define the group "the lack in belief of god". We can't even agree if we reject god or just don't see any evidence for god.
Now that we are big enough that me, living in Nebraska, can just run into atheist on the street, there seems no pressing need for an active community. I suspect many other feel the same way and smaller activist groups are picking specific battles.
The majority of atheists never had the goal of maintaining one large political power base, and the authors you mentioned mostly wanted adults to stop believing in fairy tales and wanted little to do with political power.
I don't see any failure in atheism other than the amount of time it is taking to gain societal acceptance in the south, which seems to have nothing to do with this discussion.