> Many reasons. Maybe he thinks you're indispensable to the team, but will never fully trust you any more.
It's my default position that my boss doesn't trust me. As you yourself earlier said, "I agree there should be no trust here, but we are conditioned to think that there should be." So, the answer is don't do that. Don't give in to the conditioning.
> Maybe he needs to close a deal with an external customer, and he doesn't have enough time to train up another person to take care of your job responsibilities, and he really needs to close that round of funding.
It's relatively clear when this is happening, though, because it's hard to hide when your replacement has been hired. If you can see this happening up front, you can leverage this to counter the counteroffer by offering to delay starting at the new place for increased pay (with your new employer's consent of course).
> Maybe his hiring pipeline is dry, either because your skills are hard to find, or maybe because candidates picked up on his managerial faults.
This sounds like an excellent situation to be in as an employee, as it means you have found a local minima in the supply-to-demand ratio.
> Maybe he needs time to vet external consultants to take over your job, and needs you to stick around to train them, stick around longer than 2 weeks or however long you gave notice for.
Again, it's relatively clear when this is happening, and in this case you may be able to work out a deal.
> All these situations are the worst. He thinks he needs you, but doesn't really want you around. That way you stick around in an environment where management doesn't like you, and whenever there is a viable alternative, they'll dump you for the alternative.
This sounds like literally every job ever.
Let's be clear here: at every job you've ever worked at, you're a cost center, and if you've worked yourself into a high-paying position, you're one of the largest cost centers. If your value ceases to be worth the money you're being paid they will get rid of you regardless of how they feel about you: it's hard to make feelings outweigh numbers. The problem isn't that a counteroffer has changed the situation--the situation has not changed. The problem is that you didn't understand that was the situation until you received the counteroffer.
If you're looking to be friends with your boss, I suppose that's a bad situation in that this might ruin your friendship with your boss. But if you're looking to be friends with your boss, that's going to significantly limit your career in more ways than just this. Your boss is not your friend.
It seems like you're trying to deliberately misread my statements and take them out of context.
I'm saying that once you realize there's no trust between you and your boss, and your boss realizes the same, the motives become clear. If you're naive enough to believe your boss when he says that "the company has invested a lot in you" and goes into a song and dance, you're in a bad situation because you've demonstrated that you're unable to recognize situations you're in.
> It's relatively clear when this is happening, though, because it's hard to hide when your replacement has been hired.
Often it isn't. He could either train from within, or slowly get people to start doing stuff that was usually on your plate, as is his right.
> Again, it's relatively clear when this is happening, and in this case you may be able to work out a deal.
Again, that is not relatively clear. He could be vetting consultants without telling you, and then blindsiding you, and at that point you've already lost your original offer (some of the time).
> Let's be clear here: at every job you've ever worked at, you're a cost center, and if you've worked yourself into a high-paying position, you're one of the largest cost centers.
Incorrect. At a consulting job, you are the product, and you are a value creator, not a cost center. The more they can bill for you the more they want you around. I can guarantee that they'd rather have you than a fresh grad.
Basically, I don't understand your hypothesis. You're saying "Oh, you can figure it out, so accepting a counter offer is ok sometimes". Sometimes it is, but most of the time it isn't, and you can't often tell the difference between the situations up front.
You will lose the original offer that you used to get the counter offer a lot of the time, and you're on an extremely short leash at work, really exploring the limits of at will employment, especially if your boss is the kind to hold unreasonable grudges.
It's my default position that my boss doesn't trust me. As you yourself earlier said, "I agree there should be no trust here, but we are conditioned to think that there should be." So, the answer is don't do that. Don't give in to the conditioning.
> Maybe he needs to close a deal with an external customer, and he doesn't have enough time to train up another person to take care of your job responsibilities, and he really needs to close that round of funding.
It's relatively clear when this is happening, though, because it's hard to hide when your replacement has been hired. If you can see this happening up front, you can leverage this to counter the counteroffer by offering to delay starting at the new place for increased pay (with your new employer's consent of course).
> Maybe his hiring pipeline is dry, either because your skills are hard to find, or maybe because candidates picked up on his managerial faults.
This sounds like an excellent situation to be in as an employee, as it means you have found a local minima in the supply-to-demand ratio.
> Maybe he needs time to vet external consultants to take over your job, and needs you to stick around to train them, stick around longer than 2 weeks or however long you gave notice for.
Again, it's relatively clear when this is happening, and in this case you may be able to work out a deal.
> All these situations are the worst. He thinks he needs you, but doesn't really want you around. That way you stick around in an environment where management doesn't like you, and whenever there is a viable alternative, they'll dump you for the alternative.
This sounds like literally every job ever.
Let's be clear here: at every job you've ever worked at, you're a cost center, and if you've worked yourself into a high-paying position, you're one of the largest cost centers. If your value ceases to be worth the money you're being paid they will get rid of you regardless of how they feel about you: it's hard to make feelings outweigh numbers. The problem isn't that a counteroffer has changed the situation--the situation has not changed. The problem is that you didn't understand that was the situation until you received the counteroffer.
If you're looking to be friends with your boss, I suppose that's a bad situation in that this might ruin your friendship with your boss. But if you're looking to be friends with your boss, that's going to significantly limit your career in more ways than just this. Your boss is not your friend.