What am I missing? I see new companies create products that are basically the same as existing products and succeed. I'm sure I will see a new innovative software company that built a new bug tracking system and has a great cash flow. Is there still really room in these markets for new companies? |
1) Investors are hoping that the first company to do something will not always be the most successful one. Their company could have the late-mover advantage (e.g., Facebook vs Friendster). Or they could just get lucky. YouTube was not the first video startup, but to a large extent they got lucky with timing, technology (video support in Flash), etc.
2) Investors are wary of completely new markets. Imagine Twitter going to VCs back in the day and pitching a service that's kinda like a blog, but you can only use 140 characters. Nobody would take it seriously. At some point in time, Twitter was already hot and had proven the market, but investors would still risk funding a startup that could out-Twitter Twitter. Worked for Jaiku.
3) If you look outside of Silicon Valley, many of the startups have very very tiny market share. In SV, Google Docs has already won, but a survey I read showed that only 0.5% of the US population uses an online office suite regularly. So, investors think, the game is far from over. Add Europe and Asia, and things look even worse.
4) Investors expect to have 80% of their investments fail, but have a 10x return on the other 20%.
5) More and more Web 2.0 companies rely on marketing rather than impressive technology and new solutions. People that started companies like PayPal are now making Flash slide shows (no offense). It's ridiculously hard to start a PayPal clone, but it's very easy to start a slide show site, so more people are trying. The Facebook widget 'economy' exacerbated the problem. Undoubtedly some of those will make a lot of money, but I think it is bad for the startup ecosystem in general.
6) There's a bubble. Stop asking questions, get the money, and run. :)