Auto truck driving won't remove truck drivers from their jobs too fast. There is a ton of science involved in trucking and good training is key. For this reason, a person will still be required for local driving.
At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent.
If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled drivers needed. A handful of skilled drivers at each trucking destination could be sufficient.
I kind of wonder if the first thing that will be deskilled is the last 1000 feet.
A lot of shipments do go to places that get infrequent deliveries, but any place that is receiving trucks all day every day might decide it makes sense to program the maneuvers once and not let humans fool around with each truck anymore.
I'm assuming that the automation system will have equal or better fine grained control over the vehicle-trailer system, so you only need a driver when decisions are complex. For the last 1000 feet, the decisions are easy (go/don't go) but accurate control is important. Ford shipped a backup system on their trucks last year, so I don't think I'm way out on a limb.
I frown when we look at a technology negatively for the impact on the JOBS out there. Instead, let's take a look at the tech for the benefits it provides the person doing the job, how much it will improve the quality of life and the quality of work, and how much more a worker can accomplish.
Few people realize there is a caveat here too: Driver efficiency goes up and that means drivers can get paid more. The cost of driving goes down and that means more goods can be shipped.
I view this as a key task for societies: Insuring that quick changes due to technological progress (or any other quick changes that are hard for anyone and especially individuals to foresee and plan for, like natural disasters) don’t leave people behind, in destitution or poverty or without any perspective.
If the World’s societies were up to that task more frequently less talk about jobs would be necessary.
Natural disasters are obviously a quite different story (but one where some societies are at least marginally better at supporting people, mostly because everyone accepts that people are just blameless and that makes it somehow easier to help), but technological progress usually benefits some people immensely and frequently has a positive (on average) on society as a whole. (But even that rising tide can leave people behind and leave people behind until they eventually just die of old age. So not a pleasant situation and those people have to be taken care of.)
Because of this it should be no problem to temporarily support those who are left behind. If current assumptions hold that support might even just have to be quite temporary (since beyond a certain point people will just stop wanting to do certain jobs because it’s obvious those have no future), so it’s not like we have that obligation forever.
Obviously, if current assumptions don’t hold (and large segments of the population will be permanently out of a job with no way to really change that, even across longer timeframes) we have to look for alternate solutions, like basic income, but that doesn’t seem too difficult, either. We just have to want it.
Crashes don't matter very much, since a human vs a machine isn't going to change anything in that regard. Let's assume lack of oil implies mechanical issues (since... you know, fill it with oil before it leaves). In that case it's vastly cheaper to dispatch a mechanic when a problem arises then it is to have a fleet of drivers sitting in a vehicle.
Crashes in the sense of having to deal with the other driver, insurance, police, moving the vehicle away from the road... Those things that are easy for a human to do.
An autonomous vehicle can be designed not to be hijacked.
Simply remove all user controls, or lock them unless an authorized user is sitting in the seat.
If the vehicle stops for an 'emergency' reason, notify someone in central command immediately. At that point they can monitor the situation.
If the vehicle is stopped under an emergency, and notices that its door panels are being broken into, then it can notify central command so they can call the police.
All the while, it's recording from every angle possible.
----
On the other hand, regular trucks have a driver who has to leave the vehicle to take care of human business and can be kidnapped or threatened into any number of actions that'd help a robber complete their work.
Seems like an autonomous truck should be harder to rob than a normal one. If you want to hijack a normal truck you just wave a gun at the driver, kick him out, and take the wheel. An autonomous truck won't feel threatened by a gun and may not even have any human-operable controls.
I doubt armed security can legally do anything beyond defending themselves as it is, let alone sending drones.
I guess they'll just wire the truck to alert police and turn on lots of cameras. Police might respond quickly... at least until the number of false alarms (truck hits a hole a bit too heavy, alarm goes "ROBBERY!!!11!") stays low enough.
To provide some examples for others here. My dad has been doing truck driving for around 8-10 years so I've heard at least a few stories from it.
1) There are really 3 kinds of truck drivers. Each of the types of truck drivers have different problems. Local drivers will be the last to have any kind of automation as they have lots of stopping. The other 2 are both mainly highway driving, so at least that part can be partially automated.
(a) You have the long-haul drivers (which is what I think most people think about). These guys spend around a week at a time on the road and away from home. They are probably bringing stuff across the country, maybe with multiple pickup/dropoffs through their trip.
(b) Round trip drivers. These guys will move cargo between 2 hubs, but it's done in a single day. Start at one center, haul that to another center (where you unload and reload), then return back to your starting point. My dad does this. It's around 950 miles every single day (250k miles a year), doing the exact same drive.
(c) Local drivers. This tends to be delivery/pickup through some area. This covers Fedex/UPS drivers, various food delivery, and so on.
2) Weather. Weird shit happens on the roads. While some driving will be in good weather, dealing with rain, snow, and all the craziness that can come with that adds lots of complexity to an automated system. Example: ice fog. Driving through this can create a buildup of almost an inch thick of ice all over the forward facing parts of the vehicle. I'm sure this would cause problems for sensors and who knows what else. Ice fog result: http://imgur.com/xWWTC0S
3) Tires. Tires on trucks blow out a lot more than on cars (mainly because they can be made of patches, plus run tires at 110 psi). This is something that just has to be dealt with more regularly on trucks while on the road.
4) Brakes. Due to their weight, brakes on trucks can go out. If you've ever driven in the mountains you know about truck runaway ramps. And even beyond that, brakes on trucks lock up. Example, my dad's truck caught on fire due to the brakes on the back of the trailer locking up (but it wasn't something reported on, and you don't notice it from the cab). If you drive for a long distance with a locked up brake, the pad will get red hot, then eventually catch up fire.
