> Intel will continue with the high profit margin right until the chips don't sell. And then Intel gets to go out of business.
Or, it can switch to selling ARMs and be a fraction of the company it is right now.
Intel's revenue last year was a record $60 Billion. If Intel could get $30 per ARM chip and didn't have to pay a royalty to ARM (ha ha) and had every single iPhone sold last year, that would only make them a $6 billion company. In reality, Apple would never pay that and ARM takes their cut. So, at best, Intel would only be about a $1 billion revenue company, and, that was only last year when Apple moved 200 million iPhones, the previous year was only 100 million.
So, Intel would be roughly 1/10th to 1/100th the size it currently is if it manufactured ARM's instead of x86. Yeah, I'm sure managers inside Intel are lining up for that business decision.
It is going to be better for Intel to glide to "irrelevance" for a very long time rather than switch to making ARM's.
So in your scenario, Intel stops making desktop, laptop and server chips completely. Doesnt replace them with ARM, but throws those businesses away and only gets any revenue from the existing mobile ARM market.
I dont think that's actualy what anyone is suggesting.
But it is. Intel runs its fab lines as near to full capacity as they can. Consequently, every ARM you make means you make fewer x86's.
So, you're telling me that a fab line manager is going to reduce his profit margin by 10% just so he has a fallback when the x86 market collapse and decimates Intel?
This is like finance guys before the stock market crash: "I can be contrarian but it does me no good. If I'm right, my company is so invested in the stock market going up that my company is dead anyway. If I'm wrong, well, I look like an idiot and don't make money. So, I'll just try to make money and cash out."
Or, it can switch to selling ARMs and be a fraction of the company it is right now.
Intel's revenue last year was a record $60 Billion. If Intel could get $30 per ARM chip and didn't have to pay a royalty to ARM (ha ha) and had every single iPhone sold last year, that would only make them a $6 billion company. In reality, Apple would never pay that and ARM takes their cut. So, at best, Intel would only be about a $1 billion revenue company, and, that was only last year when Apple moved 200 million iPhones, the previous year was only 100 million.
So, Intel would be roughly 1/10th to 1/100th the size it currently is if it manufactured ARM's instead of x86. Yeah, I'm sure managers inside Intel are lining up for that business decision.
It is going to be better for Intel to glide to "irrelevance" for a very long time rather than switch to making ARM's.