>I just flipped a coin and got heads. I'll probably get heads again on the next flip
Which is corrrect, if you don't know the true probability of flipping heads. You might find, for example, that it's a trick coin with two heads and no tails.
You absolutely can predict future progress from past progress. E.g. Moore's law held true for decades after the observation was made. If you see a technology advancing rapidly, then there is no reason to say it will stop in the near future!
>I don't really see the value in speculating.
Because everything depends on this prediction. The invention of AI will be the most significant event in the history of humanity. It will totally change the world. Or likely, destroy it. Being prepared for it is absolutely necessary.
Why would you have a strong prior belief about the invention of AGI? Now you are claiming to have far more certainty than I am.
>By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction.
This logic is extremely flawed. First not every prediction was wrong. Many people predicted it would happen in 2045, a few in 2030.
Second there's no reason past predictions represent the accuracy of future predictions about the same thing. Predictions should get more accurate over time, and early predictions are expected to be wildly wrong.
And third there's anthropic bias. If they were right, then we wouldn't be here to speculate about it. We can only ever observe negative outcomes, therefore observing a negative outcome shouldn't update your priors at all.
Which is corrrect, if you don't know the true probability of flipping heads. You might find, for example, that it's a trick coin with two heads and no tails.
You absolutely can predict future progress from past progress. E.g. Moore's law held true for decades after the observation was made. If you see a technology advancing rapidly, then there is no reason to say it will stop in the near future!
>I don't really see the value in speculating.
Because everything depends on this prediction. The invention of AI will be the most significant event in the history of humanity. It will totally change the world. Or likely, destroy it. Being prepared for it is absolutely necessary.