I don't know where in the article you see Bostrom predicting AI in 2004. That's a lower bound on when we might achieve the needed hardware capacity.
Bostrom's predictions about hardware advancements have more or less come to pass (closer to the upper than lower bounds, granted). I think it's a common opinion among AI researchers that the level of computing power available today is plausibly sufficient for human-level AI, if only we knew how to build the software.
The closest Bostrom gets to a prediction on software is that the "the required neuroscientific knowledge" to do brain simulation "might be obtained" by 2012. Which has turned out to be optimistic, but is very far from the strawman position of "hardware capability implies software capability" that you seem to be painting him with.
Bostrom's predictions about hardware advancements have more or less come to pass (closer to the upper than lower bounds, granted). I think it's a common opinion among AI researchers that the level of computing power available today is plausibly sufficient for human-level AI, if only we knew how to build the software.
The closest Bostrom gets to a prediction on software is that the "the required neuroscientific knowledge" to do brain simulation "might be obtained" by 2012. Which has turned out to be optimistic, but is very far from the strawman position of "hardware capability implies software capability" that you seem to be painting him with.