The trend lines showed a year ago that a high end smartphone in about 3 years from now (mid-way through the PS4's lifetime) will have higher paper specs than a PS4 (paper specs, not necessarily as well-utilized).

An Nvidia Shield tablet is on paper roughly equivalent to an XBox360. The Shield set top box is double that. A few more doublings and the prediction will play out.

3 years from now, the PS4 will be 5 years old and much cheaper than a high-end smartphone.

yes, but a high end smartphone will always be cheaper than a high end smartphone and a PS4.

the point isn't that phones are cheaper than other things, it's that you need one anyways.

You may need a smartphone, though that's debatable, but you don't need a high-end expensive one. And those wont't have paper specs anywhere near PS4-level anytime soon.

>higher paper specs than a PS4 That's not very difficult. My midrange graphics card beat it one year before the PS4 was even released.

Does your midrange graphics card run on a battery that fits in your pocket? That's the hard part.

The GPU in a Shield tablet uses literally the same tech as a 980. But, the best that tech can do on <10 Watts is to keep up with an Xbox360.

Sure, but there is no way the thermals will be there.